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Citi maintains Macau’s October GGR forecast despite a 42% drop in the daily run-rate after Golden Week

Citigroup has announced that it will keep Macau’s October 2023 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast unchanged at MOP19.5 billion ($2.43 billion), despite noting a significant slowdown in the daily run-rate during the past week.

The latest investment memo from Citigroup indicates that the daily run-rate for last week was MOP479 million ($60 million), which was 42 percent lower than the first eight days of this month, where it averaged MOP831 million ($104 million) per day.

‘The significantly slower daily run-rate reflects the impact of Typhoon Koinu on Macau early last week, as well as the seasonal slowdown following National Day Golden Week.’

However, maintaining the unchanged forecast means that the city’s GGR stays at 74 percent of 2019 levels, with the daily average at MOP594 million ($74 million) in GGR.

According to industry sources, Macau’s GGR for the first 15 days of October is estimated to have reached MOP10 billion ($1.25 billion).

An analyst from Citigroup, citing industry sources, also notes that VIP volumes were 35 percent higher month-over-month, while mass volumes increased by 30-33 percent month-over-month. The VIP hold rate appears to be slightly above the normal level.

Another report from Citigroup stated that Macau’s mass GGR almost returned to pre-pandemic levels in 3Q23, supported by the recovery in visitor arrivals and gaming revenue.

MACAU-GGR-SEPTEMBER_2023, october GGR, forecast, Citigroup

The gaming industry’s EBITDA is forecasted to show steady recovery in 3Q23, potentially reaching about 80 percent of the 3Q19 level, at about $1.853 billion. This is something that the market has yet to fully account for.

The premium mass market will continue to be the primary driver of the recovery. With no signs of a decline in gaming demand for Macau, Citigroup remains optimistic about casino stocks.

Viviana Chan
Viviana Chan
Viviana Chan is an editor, interpreter, and journalist. With over a decade of experience, she writes in English, Chinese, and Portuguese. Viviana started her career in Macau-based newspapers, where she became passionate about the region's social, financial, and cultural development. Her writing focuses on the economy, emerging industries, gaming development, political affairs, and cross cultural-exchange in the business and cultural domains. She is avid for news and eager to discover and cover stories that generate public relevance.