CLSA forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for May 2026 to grow 6.6 percent year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion ($2.8 billion), describing the projection as ‘achievable’ on the back of healthy Golden Week activity and expectations of a strong tail end after the holiday.
In a sector outlook published on Sunday, CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang said the forecast is broadly in line with the current market consensus of 6.3 percent year-on-year growth and implies an average daily GGR of MOP729 million ($90.4 million), similar to March 2026.
Kiang pointed to a rising propensity among premium mass players to travel to Macau during off-peak weeks, suggesting that ‘a strong tail end, roughly for a week, is possible’ after the Golden Week holiday. CLSA’s illustrative breakdown assumes a daily GGR run rate of MOP850 million ($105 million) during both the Golden Week period (May 1st to 5th) and the subsequent week up to May 12th, before normalizing to MOP650 million ($80.6 million) per day for the rest of the month.
The forecast follows an on-the-ground assessment, with Kiang reporting ‘healthy signs’ across Macau’s integrated resorts after visiting six properties on May 2nd: Galaxy Macau, Venetian Macao, Londoner Macao, MGM Cotai, City of Dreams and Wynn Palace.
Foot traffic into casinos grew steadily from noon onwards, the analyst noted. Minimum bets on the general mass floor were most commonly set at HK$1,000 to HK$2,000 ($129 to $258), while higher-limit areas reached up to HK$5,000 ($645). Two tables at City of Dreams were observed with minimum bets of HK$10,000 ($1,290).
The report also highlighted the rollout of new side bets, including ‘money no monkey’ and ‘pair+’, at properties such as MGM Cotai and City of Dreams. While player adoption will take time, CLSA argued that wider game variations could ‘underpin structurally higher win rates over time.’
The firm maintains Outperform ratings on Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Sands China, a Hold rating on Wynn Macau and an Underperform rating on SJM.
