Macau’s gross gaming revenue is set to rebound from August once the FIFA World Cup ends, Jefferies said in a note on Monday, after the tournament, capital controls, and tough year-earlier comparisons left second-quarter revenue essentially flat.
Gross gaming revenue reached MOP66 billion ($8.2 billion) in 2Q26, down 7.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 0.1 percent lower year-on-year, according to the brokerage. The quarter started well, with April and May up 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively, before June revenue slid 12.1 percent as the tournament diverted spending away from the gaming hub.
Despite the weak quarter, first-half revenue still grew 6.8 percent year-on-year to MOP126.9 billion ($15.7 billion).
July still under pressure
Jefferies expects July revenue to fall 8 percent year-on-year, with the World Cup, which runs from June 11th to July 19th, continuing to weigh on the month.
From August, however, the brokerage forecasts a recovery, with growth of 2 percent in 3Q26 and 4 percent in 4Q26. That would take full-year revenue to MOP260 billion ($32 billion), up 5 percent, slightly below the market consensus of 6 percent growth.
The firm noted that the ‘wealth effect from new IPOs remains a catalyst’ for the market, as gains from Hong Kong listings have been feeding luxury sales and gaming spend since mid-2025, though this also creates tougher comparisons for the rest of the year.
Jefferies turned more selective on the sector, naming Galaxy Entertainment as its top pick on strong execution and balance sheet, and removing Sands China from the position.
The brokerage estimates Sands China was the only major operator to lose ground in the second quarter, with its share falling 2.5 percentage points from 1Q26 to 24 percent. Galaxy (21.1 percent), MGM China (16.7 percent), Wynn Macau (13.8 percent) and SJM (10.3 percent) are all seen gaining share.
Jefferies rates Galaxy, Sands China, MGM China and Wynn Macau Buy, while SJM Holdings is rated Hold on lower visibility over its profitability outlook.
