CLSA has trimmed its 2026 forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to growth of just 2.3 percent, or MOP253.2 billion ($31.3 billion), after a 12 percent year-on-year slide in June that the brokerage expects to spill into the first half of July.
The 2 percent cut leaves CLSA 3.5 percent below the Bloomberg consensus, and analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Evan Wan warned in the July 10th note that market earnings forecasts could face near-term downward revisions. Consensus growth implies daily GGR accelerating to MOP729 million ($90 million) in the second half, against an actual MOP701 million ($87 million) per day in the first six months.
The brokerage now projects July GGR to fall 12 percent year-on-year to MOP19.5 billion ($2.41 billion), with second-half revenue down 2 percent to MOP126.3 billion ($15.6 billion). Forecasts from August to December are unchanged, and daily takings should pick up from mid-July, the report said.
Second-quarter GGR slipped 0.1 percent year-on-year to MOP61.0 billion ($7.55 billion), averaging MOP671 million ($83 million) per day, 8 percent below the first quarter, with channel checks pointing to below-usual VIP win rates in seven of nine weeks.
The reading mirrors Citigroup’s assessment, previously reported by AGB, which described 2Q26 as Macau’s ‘toughest’ quarter since the border reopening, with industry EBITDA weighed down by the FIFA World Cup and unfavorable VIP hold.
Fewer overnight visitors, but premium play holds up
Visitor arrivals grew 7 percent year-on-year to 6.93 million in April and May, 1.5 percent above the same months in 2019, according to Statistics and Census Services data cited in the report. However, only 38 to 39 percent of visitors stayed overnight, down from 41 to 44 percent a year earlier and below the pre-pandemic range of 45 to 55 percent.
Despite this, the average length of stay edged up to 1.7 nights from 1.6, and GGR per overnight visitor rose 7 percent year-on-year to MOP15,836 ($1,960) across the two months, while GGR per total visitation was flat at MOP6,133 ($759). CLSA said the pattern reinforces its view that Macau’s GGR ‘is supported by the premium segment’.
Five of six concessionaires now rated Outperform
Despite the softer outlook, CLSA upgraded Wynn Macau and Melco Resorts & Entertainment to Outperform from Hold on valuation grounds, leaving five of Macau’s six concessionaires with Outperform ratings. SJM Holdings remains the brokerage’s sole Underperform.
CLSA lowered its share price targets for most operators to reflect the weaker earnings outlook, with Galaxy Entertainment the only one nudged higher. Even so, the brokerage sees the stocks as inexpensive: the six operators’ combined market value of $42.8 billion is close to its lowest level on record, and the shares trade well below their historical average.
Galaxy remains the house’s top pick, backed by its entertainment event strategy in driving patronage into casinos and its balance sheet strength. With the operator’s capital expenditure cycle peaking in 2026 and 2027, Galaxy will ‘enter harvesting period of free cashflow ahead of its peers’, the analysts wrote.
