Macau’s economy is expected to expand by about 5 percent year-on-year in real terms in the first half of 2026, supported by the continued tourism recovery and higher cumulative gaming revenue, according to the Macau Economic Association.
The association estimated first-half gross domestic product at MOP209.5 billion ($26.0 billion), equivalent to 90.1 percent of the level recorded in the same period of 2019. Its forecast range stands at MOP207 billion ($25.7 billion) to MOP212 billion ($26.3 billion), representing real growth of between 4 percent and 6 percent.
Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue reached MOP126.9 billion ($15.7 billion) during the first six months of 2026, up 6.8 percent from a year earlier and recovering to 84.6 percent of the comparable 2019 level, the association said in its latest monthly economic assessment.
However, the gaming and tourism sector experienced a temporary slowdown in June amid interest in the FIFA World Cup. Monthly GGR fell to a year-to-date low of MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion), or approximately MOP617 million ($76.6 million) per day, broadly in line with market expectations.
The Macau Economic Association said the integrated tourism and leisure industry remained a key economic pillar, supporting related sectors including hotels, restaurants, retail and conventions. Continued growth in visitor arrivals also helped Macau maintain moderate economic expansion during the first half.
Despite this, external economic uncertainty, weaker financial-market sentiment and cautious spending by visitors and residents could weigh on the recovery.
For the second half, the Macau Economic Association expects the economy to remain broadly stable, supported by moderate growth in tourism and gaming. However, it said the outlook would depend largely on the performance of Macau’s integrated tourism and leisure sector, mainland China’s economy and the continued strength of visitor arrivals.
