Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to have risen about 10 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 to roughly MOP108 billion ($13.38 billion), supported by strong performance in the gaming and tourism sectors, according to estimates by the Macau Economics Association (MEA).
The association said the city’s economic recovery continued to gain traction at the start of the year, with overall output reaching around 93 percent of pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. Based on its statistical modeling, the MEA estimated a GDP range of MOP105 billion ($13.01 billion) to MOP112 billion ($13.88 billion) for the quarter, with growth between 8 percent and 12 percent.
Gaming remained a key driver. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first quarter reached MOP65.87 billion ($8.16 billion), up 14.3 percent from MOP57.66 billion ($7.14 billion) a year earlier, reflecting continued recovery momentum in the sector. The rebound in gaming activity was supported by robust visitor arrivals, which exceeded 10 million during the quarter, alongside sustained high hotel occupancy rates.
The association noted that tourism-related industries continued to underpin broader economic activity, with the leisure sector maintaining a strong spillover effect on services and employment. Labor market conditions remained stable, with both total employment and unemployment rates holding at relatively favorable levels.
Financial indicators also pointed to improving conditions. Broad money supply (M2) rose 7.9 percent year-on-year to a record MOP863.65 billion ($107.02 billion), while the non-performing loan ratio declined for three consecutive months. Banking sector results in the first two months of the year increased 14.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.
However, the MEA cautioned that underlying domestic demand and market confidence remained relatively weak. Indicators such as consumer sentiment, the loan-to-deposit ratio, and property prices continued to show limited recovery, suggesting cautious investment and spending behavior.
For the second quarter, the association expects Macau’s economic climate to remain stable, supported by continued tourism activity, although risks from high oil prices and subdued consumption may weigh on momentum.
The International Monetary Fund has previously projected Macau’s economy to grow 3 percent in 2026.
