Macau’s recently introduced baccarat side bets could provide a significant boost to gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth thanks to their substantially higher house advantage, according to Citigroup.
The investment memo, authored by analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, was published following the bank’s proprietary Labor Day table survey of the Macau market.
Citigroup highlighted the rollout of new baccarat side bets, swiftly approved by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), as a key takeaway from the visit. The new side bets carry an estimated house advantage of 16 to 18 percent, compared with around 1 percent on the main Banker and Player bets. ‘Any further increase in propensity to wager on side bets would provide Macau with a significant boost to GGR growth,’ the analysts wrote.
All six concessionaires have added some of the newly approved options. Sands China, Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts and SJM now offer both ‘Monkey no Monkey’ and ‘Pairs+’, while MGM China additionally provides ‘Banker 4’ and ‘Player 4’. Galaxy Entertainment offers only ‘Monkey no Monkey’ at Galaxy Macau.
The analysts expect the new wagers, which can pay as much as 50-to-1 and 300-to-1, to gain traction quickly and lift GGR thanks to a house advantage comparable to Lucky 6 and Lucky 7. They noted, however, that because the side bets were launched only days before their visit, most players had likely not yet encountered them, leaving Lucky 6 and Lucky 7 as the side bets of choice for the time being.
Premium Mass holds up against tough comp
On the Premium Mass segment, Citigroup observed HK$23 million ($2.94 million) in wagers during the Labor Day edition of its survey, the second-highest reading of 2026 and only 6 percent below the figure recorded during Chinese New Year (CNY).
The total was down 15 percent year-over-year, which the analysts attributed to a ‘super tough comp,’ noting that the May 2025 sample had been inflated by two million-dollar wagering whales — including the largest ever recorded by the survey at HK$2.9 million ($370,000), close to the HK$3 million ($383,000) maximum bet typically set in Macau for baccarat. Stripping out HK$4.1 million ($524,000) in wagers from those two players, both total Premium Mass wager and average wager per player (HK$24,459, or roughly $3,125) in May 2026 would have been largely flat year-over-year.
Visitation exceeded 200,000 on each of the first two days of the holiday, comparable to peak CNY levels, which Citigroup said reinforced Macau’s standing as one of the most popular tourist destinations among Mainland Chinese travelers during Golden Weeks.
Whale watch: 58 high-rollers, the most of 2026
The survey identified 58 whales — a term Citigroup uses in its monthly Macau table survey to describe players wagering HK$100,000 ($12,800) or more per hand — the highest count recorded so far in 2026, versus 49 in May 2025.
The Player of the Month was spotted at Wynn Palace’s Chairman’s Club wagering HK$730,000 ($93,000) per hand, followed by an HK$600,000 ($77,000) whale at MGM’s High Limit Area and an HK$350,000 ($45,000) whale at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon Room.
Galaxy and Sands lead on rooms and concerts
Galaxy ranked first in Premium Mass share with 29 percent of total wagers observed during the survey, while Sands China followed in second place with 26 percent. Together, the two operators accounted for 55 percent of Premium Mass wagers tracked over the holiday.
Citigroup credited their leadership to the largest hotel room portfolios in Macau, as well as Labor Day concert programming — Hai Lai A Mu at Galaxy Arena and Kelly Chen at Venetian Arena — that drew premium visitors to their integrated resorts during the holiday period.
