Macau’s gross gaming revenue growth is now expected to come in at 3 percent to 5 percent year-on-year in May, as comparisons become increasingly challenging through 2026, Jefferies said in a May 26th note, citing softer daily revenue trends in the final stretch of the month and a more cautious outlook for the gaming sector.
Based on industry checks, Jefferies said daily gaming revenue for the remainder of May is expected to range from MOP650 million ($81.1 million) to MOP750 million ($93.5 million), implying full-month GGR of MOP21.8 billion ($2.72 billion) to MOP22.4 billion ($2.79 billion). That compares with the market’s expectation of 6.3 percent year-on-year growth and Jefferies’ own forecast of 4 percent growth.
‘The more modest GGR growth estimate for May compared with the prior week (+3%-+5% vs. +4%-+11%) should be a modest negative for shares in the sector,’ Jefferies analysts wrote. ‘Our expectation that comparisons become increasingly challenging through 2026, which in part drives our measured enthusiasm, is playing out.’
According to Jefferies’ industry sources and checks, Macau’s gaming revenue averaged MOP656 million ($81.8 million) per day for the eight days ending May 25th. That was 5 percent lower week-on-week, despite Hong Kong’s Buddha’s Birthday holiday long weekend from May 23rd to May 25th, and 4 percent below the average daily revenue recorded for May 2026.
Month-to-date mass and VIP revenue were up 8 percent to 10 percent and 10 percent to 12 percent month-on-month, respectively, while the VIP win rate was tracking below the normal range at 2.6 percent to 2.8 percent.
The brokerage said the latest indication is modestly negative for the sector, given expectations of growth in May before more difficult comparisons in June.
Jefferies also noted that premium mass remains the main driver of market growth, favoring Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment due to their positioning in the segment. It said Wynn and Galaxy should continue gaining share in premium mass, while other operators are expected to remain stable or face greater competitive pressure.
On policy, Jefferies highlighted Macau’s consultation draft for its Third Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, which aims to raise the non-gaming share of GDP from 56.7 percent in 2024 to about 60 percent by 2030. The brokerage said this effectively marks a two-year delay from the previous 2028 target under Macau’s diversification plan.
The draft plan also includes goals to grow overall GDP, raise median monthly income for locally employed residents, and commit at least MOP18 billion ($2.24 billion) toward technology and innovation infrastructure.
