Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 5.5 percent year-on-year in April to MOP19.89 billion ($2.47 billion), but came in below initial expectations due to ‘low VIP hold,’ according to an investment memo by Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky.
The result was weaker than both Bloomberg Asia consensus of 6.5 percent growth and Seaport’s earlier projection of more than 11 percent, with Umansky noting that hold-adjusted growth would likely have reached 10 to 11 percent.
‘We believe April GGR was negatively impacted by low VIP hold,’ Umansky said, adding that while premium play remained ‘solid,’ VIP performance was ‘softer, in particular low hold’ during the month.
On a month-on-month basis, April GGR declined from March levels, with average daily revenue estimated at MOP663 million ($82.4 million), below the first-quarter average and reflecting the impact of weaker hold. Seaport added that MGM and Galaxy were the biggest month-on-month share gainers, while Sands and Melco likely lost share.
Seaport noted that, despite the softer-than-expected headline figure, underlying demand indicators remained stable. Visitation growth was estimated at around 10 percent year-on-year in April, while premium segments continued to support overall performance.
The firm forecasts May GGR to increase by 8.5 percent year-on-year, supported by the five-day May Day holiday running from May 1st to 5th, which is expected to drive strong visitation and hotel occupancy.
Umansky added that some customer trips may have been deferred from April into May, potentially contributing to improved performance in the current month.
However, Seaport expects growth to moderate in the second half of 2026, citing more challenging year-on-year comparisons and the need for stronger demand or improved liquidity to sustain momentum. The firm forecasts full-year GGR growth of around 7 percent, with the first half rising 9.9 percent before slowing to 4.4 percent in the second half.
The note also highlighted that Macau’s recovery continues to be driven primarily by premium mass and VIP segments, while base mass—particularly overnight visitors—remains relatively weaker compared to pre-pandemic levels.
