Macau’s gross gaming revenue rose 6.7 percent year-on-year in May to MOP22.61 billion ($2.83 billion), coming in above recent market expectations but below Seaport Research Partners’ initial forecast due to low VIP hold, according to a June 1st industry update by the firm.
Seaport said May’s result was negatively affected by low VIP hold, following a similar trend in April, while underlying demand appeared stronger. The firm estimated that hold-adjusted growth would likely have exceeded 12 percent to 13 percent.
‘May GGR came in better than recent expectations,’ Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote, adding that the month saw ‘strong premium play but VIP softer, largely due to low hold.’
The firm estimated that MGM China and SJM Holdings were the largest market share gainers compared with the first quarter, while Sands China and Melco Resorts likely lost share.
Seaport said Sands was likely affected by VIP hold below the broader market level.
For June, Seaport forecast Macau GGR to be broadly flat year-on-year, at a decline of 0.3 percent, and down 7 percent month-on-month. The firm estimated June GGR at about MOP21.00 billion ($2.63 billion), based on average daily GGR of around MOP700 million ($87.5 million).
The firm expects second-quarter GGR to grow 3.9 percent year-on-year, with VIP revenue down 16 percent to 17 percent and mass revenue up 7 percent to 8 percent.
Growth is expected to decelerate in the second half of 2026 due to more difficult year-on-year comparisons and hold comparisons. Seaport said GGR growth could slow to below 4 percent in the second half unless demand improves or liquidity conditions strengthen.
For full-year 2026, Seaport forecasts Macau GGR growth of 6.2 percent, with VIP up about 1 percent and mass up about 6 percent.
A separate Deutsche Bank note also pointed to stronger-than-expected May GGR, saying the result represented a 13.7 percent sequential increase from April and was 740 basis points better than historical May trends.
Deutsche Bank forecast June GGR of about $2.63 billion, up 1.0 percent year-on-year.
