Analysts at Jefferies are estimating a 5.3 percent gross gaming revenue (GGR) uptick for Macau this year, as strong performance from most operators saw GGR reach MOP247.4 billion ($30.86 billion) in 2025 – up 9.1 percent yearly, ahead of its 8.9 percent estimate and slightly below the 9.2 percent market prediction.
In a Tuesday research note, the group noted ‘we view favorably the stock setup in 2026, given the easy GGR comps through May 2026’ and a ‘conservative’ government target of MOP236 billion ($29.44 billion) for FY26.
Current estimates are for GGR this year to reach MOP260.6 billion, with rises in both VIP revenue – to MOP69.34 billion ($ billion) and mass – to MOP191.26 billion ($32.51 billion), up by 2 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
The group also predicts that Macau’s visitation is set to break a new yearly record, after surpassing the 40-million-mark in 2025. Hopes are for 41.98 million visitors this year, with visitation from mainland China to top the 30-million mark for the first time (hitting 30.43 million), with slight upticks in Hong Kong visitation – to 7.46 million from 7.32 million in 2025, and other regions – 4.09 million from 3.72 million last year. The estimated 10 percent uptick in international visitation goes in line with operators’ mandates to diversify their source markets and government promotion efforts to draw in non-Chinese visitation.
Despite this, the average spend per visitor is not expected to increase much this year – reaching just MOP6,207 ($774), despite efforts to focus on longer-staying, higher-spending tourists.
Sands, Galaxy and MGM lead the pack
Of the five operators covered in its analysis, Sands China is expected to continue to be the market leader, with revenue reaching $8.35 billion, after the analysts revised up their previous estimate by 2 percent. Galaxy’s revenue could reach HK$53.28 billion ($6.65 billion), a change of about 1 percent from previous estimates. MGM China, although trailing the two mass-market operators could see HK$36.69 billion ($4.58 billion) in revenue, also a slight increase from previous estimates.
The revisions come as Jefferies indicates it expects Sands to have gained 0.5 percentage points in market share in the fourth quarter of last year, to 24.4 percent. Galaxy Entertainment Group, meanwhile, saw a 1.7 percentage point uptick – to 22.1 percent of market share. MGM China saw a 0.7 percentage point increase to 16.5 percent during the quarter.
Both Wynn Macau and SJM likely lost market share during the final quarter of 2025, with Wynn down 1 percentage point to 12.2 percent of the market and SJM down 1.2 percentage points to 10.7 percent.
The analysts hold Buy ratings for Galaxy, Sands, MGM and Wynn, with a Hold rating for SJM.
Galaxy going strong ahead of Phase 4 opening
With Galaxy hoping to complete Phase 4 in 2027, the analysts note that management is predicting to maintain market share of 20-22 percent before its opening. They note that the operator ‘acknowledges market competition but has seen it settle on a more rational ground and expects this trend to continue, with a more targeted approach facilitated by smart tables’.
Phase 4 -featuring 1,500 hotel rooms, 120 retail units, a water resort, expanded gaming facilities that can host up to 400 tables and a 5,000-seat theater – should help it leverage its ‘new premium offerings and strong performance in both mass and VIP segments’.
The majority of Galaxy’s strength has come from its Cotai property Galaxy Macau, while looking at its StarWorld renovation, ‘management believes it will take more time (originally targeted for 1-2 years)’. The closure of its satellite casino in Waldo last year likely will have ‘little impact’.
Estimates are for a strong rise in VIP GGR this year, reaching HK$11.02 billion ($1.41 billion) – up by 19 percent, and a 9 percent uptick in mass revenue, to HK$39.87 billion ($5.11 billion). Galaxy Macau is estimated to contribute HK$48.48 billion ($6.22 billion) of the group’s 2026 GGR, an 11 percent yearly rise.
Sands China focused on ‘delivering absolute EBITDA dollars’
The Jefferies analysts note that Sands China is focused on EBITDA ‘rather than margin optimization’, with management continuing to target an adjusted EBITDA run rate of $2.7 billion. This would include about $1 billion each from Venetian and Londoner and $300 million each from Parisian and Four Seasons, with Sands Macau (on the peninsula) contributing $100 million.
This is set to be driven by increased visitation and new capacity, after the reopening of Londoner’s 2,405 rooms before the May holiday last year.
Overall GGR is expected to rise by 12 percent yearly, to $7.98 billion in 2026, with an 11 percent VIP revenue uptick to $717 million and a 12 percent rise in mass revenue to $6.46 billion.
The Londoner is expected to drive revenue, to over $3.17 billion, a 19 percent yearly rise, with a small increase of 10 percent expected from Venetian, at $2.79 billion.
The analysts highlighted that Comps could cut into GGR by 20 percent, a slight drop from the 22 percent registered in 2025.
MGM China continues to ‘beef up offerings’
The golden lion will continue to focus on premium mass this year, aiming to ‘sustain mid-teen market share’. This will be supported by the ongoing operations of the ‘ultra-high-end’ Alpha Club, officially opened in September of last year, which offers 27 tables, a dedicated restaurant and cigar lounge. The analysts note ‘there is no other such offering in the peninsula’.
In Cotai, the group has 32 tables at its Mansion One venue set to be complemented by the conversion of 160 rooms into 63 suites – with most featuring two bedrooms. The renovation is expected to be completed in 1H26. In addition, a revamp of level 2 of the building into a premium mass area ‘will help drive premium players’.
GGR is expected to hit nearly HK$41.34 billion ($5.3 billion) this year, up by 7 percent yearly, with a 6 percent uptick in VIP revenue, to HK$4.98 billion ($638.67 million) and a 7 percent rise in mass, to HK$33.86 billion ($4.34 billion).
MGM Cotai continues to be the strongest revenue contributor, with an expectation for a 6 percent rise in revenue to HK$23.05 billion ($2.96 billion), while MGM Macau revenue could rise by 8 percent to HK$16.3 billion ($2.09 billion) this year.
Other shifts
While trailing their competition, Wynn Macau and SJM still have exciting news for this year.
Wynn is planning to complete its Chairman’s Club expansion at Wynn Palace ‘before Chinese New Year’, with the renovation of ‘the initial floors of the Wynn Tower’ (on the peninsula) ‘close to completion’. These will ‘elevate the company’s offerings at both properties’.
In addition, the plan to build Wynn Palace Event and Entertainment on the north land parcel of Wynn Palace is still subject to government approvals, with a tentative opening date of early 2028.
Looking to SJM, the company plans to form the ‘largest integrated resort on the peninsula’, after acquiring a property in Hotel Lisboa from its parent group STDM last year. This would include the extension of Casino Lisboa operations – which houses 80 tables, by 7,504 square meters – with an anticipated opening in ‘early 2026’. The group’s Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa together will comprise 1,500 rooms, making it the largest peninsular IR by key number.
The company will benefit from the relocation of about 440 tables from its closed satellite casinos, which it can spread across both its Macau properties and Grand Lisboa Palace in Cotai.
