Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in December is expected to accelerate, delivering year-on-year growth of between 13 percent and 21 percent, supported by stable mass-market demand and a recovery in VIP volumes despite recent volatility in win rates, according to Macquarie Research.
If realized, Macau’s fourth-quarter 2025 performance would stand out. October GGR reached its highest level since the pandemic, with a 15.9 percent year-on-year increase. November also exceeded seasonal expectations, posting a 14.4 percent year-on-year rise. The growth is much higher than the general forecast for the one-digit GGR growth for the full year of 2025.
In a research note published on December 15th, Macquarie said that while weekly GGR declined 12 percent week-on-week due to a lower VIP win rate, overall performance remained resilient, with weekly revenue still up 12 percent year-on-year.
Based on an assumed daily GGR of between MOP640 million and MOP720 million ($79.4 million to $89.3 million) for the remainder of the month, December GGR is projected to reach between MOP20.6 billion and MOP22 billion ($2.56 billion to $2.73 billion), representing a 13–21 percent annual increase.
The report, authored by analysts Linda Huang and Becky Cai, noted that Macau’s average daily revenue was approximately MOP650 million ($80.6 million) last week. The week-on-week decline was primarily due to a weaker VIP hold, with VIP win rates estimated at 2.3-2.7 percent, compared with 3.3-3.5 percent in November.
Despite this, both the mass and VIP segments recorded higher activity levels compared with the previous month, with mass-market average daily revenue rising 3 percent to 5 percent and VIP average daily revenue increasing 4 percent to 6 percent versus November levels.
Macquarie added that December’s performance underscores the continued normalization of Macau’s gaming market, with demand holding up despite short-term fluctuations in VIP play. The brokerage also highlighted structural changes within the market, including the impending closure of Casino Landmark at the end of December. This will mark the shutdown of all remaining satellite casinos, except Casino L’Arc, which is currently undergoing an acquisition process.
While SJM expects the reallocation of gaming tables to existing properties to improve margins, Macquarie cautioned that the exit of satellite casinos could result in a 1 percent loss of market share for the operator. The report noted that intensifying promotional activities by competitors could further heighten market competition. ‘With Sands China ramping up its promotional activities, we believe competition for market share will intensify further next year’, the analysts said.
Looking beyond gaming revenue, Macquarie also anticipates a recovery in global luxury demand, which could provide an additional growth driver for Macau’s integrated resort operators. The brokerage expects improving luxury consumption trends to support mall retail businesses within casino resorts, adding another dimension of earnings potential alongside gaming operations.
For the period ahead, Macquarie said it remains more optimistic about Macau’s 2026 GGR outlook than the government’s current projection, forecasting mid-single-digit growth for the full year. The firm expects GGR growth to remain in double digits in the first quarter of 2026 due to a low comparison base, before moderating from the second quarter onward as base effects normalize.
