Morgan Stanley has lowered its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau in 2026, citing decelerating growth and persistent downward pressure on industry estimates.
The investment bank now expects full-year 2026 GGR of approximately MOP260.6 billion ($32.3 billion), up from MOP247.40 billion in 2025.
The revised figure implies annual growth of around 5.3 percent, below both the bank’s earlier projection and broader market expectations of roughly 6 percent.
In a note led by analysts Praveen Choudhary and Stephen Grambling, the firm cautioned that the pace of recovery is likely to remain muted through the rest of the year. Its forecasts imply quarterly GGR growth of only 2 percent to 3 percent year-on-year through the fourth quarter of 2026.
Near-term volatility could be more pronounced. Morgan Stanley flagged that June and July may see slowdowns linked to the FIFA World Cup, potentially pushing growth into negative territory on a year-on-year basis.
The downgraded revenue outlook fed through to earnings expectations. The bank trimmed its 2026 sector EBITDA growth estimate to 1 percent from a prior 2 percent, reflecting slower top-line growth alongside ongoing cost pressures across operators. Total corporate EBITDA for Macau’s six concessionaires is now projected at just under $7.93 billion for the year.
Looking to the second quarter, Morgan Stanley estimates total Macau property EBITDA of just under $2.08 billion, a sequential decline of around 4.9 percent from roughly $2.19 billion in the prior quarter, with performance broadly flat year-on-year. The bank also expects market-share shifts, with Sands China’s share falling 2.6 percentage points to 23.6 percent and Melco Resorts down 0.8 points to 14.4 percent, while MGM China and Wynn Macau gain ground.
At the operator level, Morgan Stanley said its most significant downward adjustments were tied to Sands China and SJM Holdings, driven by weaker anticipated second-quarter performance. The bank expects negative EBITDA revisions to continue, citing lower GGR growth assumptions and a structurally higher cost base.
