Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to grow by only 5 percent year-on-year in 2026, reaching MOP260 billion ($32.2 billion), according to a report by brokerage CLSA, which cautioned that the scope for further upside has diminished despite a stronger-than-expected start to the year.
In the latest research note, CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang said the firm is maintaining its forecast at the lower end of the broader market consensus range of 5 to 8 percent.
‘We still expect Macau’s 2026 GGR to grow 5% YoY… but the room for positive surprises has diminished,’ Kiang wrote, citing emerging headwinds that could weigh on momentum.
The projection comes even as Macau recorded a solid first quarter, with GGR rising 14 percent year-on-year to MOP65.9 billion ($8.2 billion), supported by resilient demand in VIP and premium mass segments. However, CLSA said this outperformance does not alter its full-year outlook, as macroeconomic pressures—particularly weakening industrial profitability in China and rising oil prices—could act as a drag in the coming months.
Recovery factor
The brokerage also pointed to structural factors shaping the recovery. Growth continues to be driven primarily by the premium segment, while GGR per visitor remains under pressure, indicating limited broad-based spending improvement. At the same time, same-day visitors are becoming a more important driver of visitation growth, reinforcing concerns over lower per-capita gaming spend, the brokerage notes.
Hotel data further reflects these dynamics. Five-star hotel room rates declined by around 2 to 3 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, even as occupancy levels rose to above 95 percent. CLSA said this suggests operators are lowering prices to support volume, highlighting a more competitive operating environment.
Despite these headwinds, CLSA noted that a stronger renminbi could continue to provide some support to gaming demand, though this may not be sufficient to offset broader economic pressures.
By contrast, a more optimistic view has emerged from other analysts. As previously reported by AGB, CBRE projected Macau’s GGR could grow 8.3 percent in 2026, above consensus expectations, supported by resilient demand and continued investment in tourism infrastructure. The divergence underscores uncertainty over the sustainability of Macau’s recovery trajectory, CLSA points out.
Market share shifts and earnings revisions
CLSA also highlighted shifting competitive dynamics, noting that Sands China has gained market share so far in 2026, while SJM Holdings has continued to lose share, based on its channel checks.
The brokerage said its earnings forecast revisions are driven by updated market share assumptions as well as changes in operating expenses, incorporating actual results from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Among concessionaires, CLSA pointed to Galaxy Entertainment as demonstrating the strongest cost discipline, which came in better than expected despite Sands China‘s more aggressive promotional activity. This was cited as ‘the main reason’ for upward revisions to Galaxy’s EBITDA forecasts.
For Sands China, however, the outlook is more balanced. While the company is expected to benefit from higher market share, CLSA said it has also raised its assumptions for operating costs and player rebates. These increases are expected to offset the impact of stronger revenue, limiting earnings upside.
