Macau casino operator SJM Holdings is likely to face continued pressure on market share and earnings into 2026, with analysts warning that satellite casino closures, rising competition and structural weaknesses at its core properties will limit growth prospects.
“We expect SJM’s market share to fall further toward 10 percent in 2026, given dilution from satellite closures”, said Samuel Hui, director of APAC corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings, in comments provided to Asia Gaming Brief. Hui said the operator’s recovery will hinge on execution rather than expansion as Macau’s gaming market matures.
Growth at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP), SJM’s flagship Cotai resort, is already losing momentum, Hui said, amid intensifying competition from larger integrated resorts.
“GLP’s isolated location and limited facilities with mass appeal weaken its competitiveness against other integrated resorts”, he said. While SJM is pursuing initiatives to improve connectivity, food and beverage, retail and event offerings, Hui cautioned that “its effectiveness in materially increasing market share remains uncertain”.
Academics also point to operational shortcomings at SJM’s legacy properties on the Macau peninsula.
“Despite its emphasis on Macau’s heritage, iconic architecture and the display of cultural items, Grand Lisboa appears to have a confusing layout without a singular and clear center of attraction,” said Carlos Siu Lam, associate professor at the Gaming Teaching and Research Center of the Macao Polytechnic University. He added that customer service “seems to lag behind that of others”.
Satellite consolidation reshapes strategy
The analysts’ assessments come as SJM restructures its operations following the phased shutdown of satellite casinos under revised gaming laws. These venues — which operate inside hotels not owned by concessionaires — must either be brought under direct control or cease operations by the end of the year.
Hui said the relocation of tables and machines from closing satellites into SJM’s self-owned properties could help preserve part of its customer base and improve margins.
“We believe a significant portion of satellite customers will still be better served by SJM’s self-owned properties, such as the recent reopening of Casino Lisboa’s gaming area, given similar product offering”, he said.
SJM has intensified marketing efforts since the fourth quarter of 2025 to recapture lost traffic. Fitch assumes the group will retain around 50 percent of remaining satellite casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), inclusive of operations from its acquisition of Casino L’Arc.
Retaining that share will be critical, Hui said, as SJM absorbs about 4,000 satellite staff back onto its payroll. “Retaining such market share, while generating a higher margin, will be crucial to offset the increase in operating cost”, he explained.
Cost relief is expected to be gradual. Hui said SJM could benefit “through natural attrition and redeployment of the additional satellite staff over the coming years”.
Siu said some peninsula properties could benefit disproportionately from consolidation. “Oceanus is likely to benefit from the closing of the multiple satellite casinos due to their similar targets and policies”, he noted, adding that with “a clearer image and improved customer experience, the relocation of tables and machines may pose opportunities for improved business performance”.
Base mass focus limits differentiation
Both analysts said SJM’s peninsula-focused strategy leaves it targeting different customer segments from Cotai’s integrated resorts, but also caps its upside.
“Already [it is] targeting different segments, with SJM’s portfolio focusing more on base mass,” Hui said, noting that this differentiates the group from Cotai operators but exposes it more directly to price-sensitive customers.
Siu said SJM has been working to improve operational efficiency and appeal to the mass market through bundled offerings and better use of existing assets.
“With the high capital expenditure and slow market gains, its earnings have been gradually improving,” he said, adding that SJM has been making greater use of its hotels, food and beverage outlets and Yaohan department stores to lift non-gaming revenue.
Hui, however, said non-gaming income is unlikely to materially change the earnings profile. “Non-gaming revenues are expected to remain a small portion, below 10 percent,” he said.
Partnerships and events to support peninsula play
To strengthen its competitiveness, SJM has also pursued partnerships and themed attractions, analysts said.
“SJM appears to be making use of the ‘Macau Palace’ floating casino and restaurants along with the food streets to focus on its peninsula strategy,” Siu said, adding that collaborations with third parties to host themed events — including family-oriented attractions — could help draw additional foot traffic.
The strategy aligns with management’s emphasis on revitalizing core assets such as Hotel Lisboa. Hui said recent references by SJM’s Chairman Daisy Ho to a “new operating framework” and “revitalized zones” relate mainly to satellite closures and the reopening of the Crystal Palace gaming area at Hotel Lisboa, rather than a broader transformation.
The structural issues flagged by analysts were reflected in SJM’s 3Q25 results. Profit attributable to owners plunged 91 percent year-on-year to HK$9 million (US$1.16 million), while group GGR fell 4.7 percent to HK$7.14 billion ($919 million).
Market share declined to 11.8 percent from 13.9 percent a year earlier, largely due to a sharp drop in satellite casino contributions.
Chairman and Executive Director Daisy Ho has described the disruption from satellite closures as “inevitable”, saying the group is “actively realigning resources — both people and tables — to strengthen core operations” and positioning SJM for a more “integrated and resilient platform” in 2026.
Analysts remain cautious, however, warning that the path to stabilization will depend on disciplined execution rather than a return to rapid growth, as SJM seeks to defend its historic base in an increasingly competitive Macau market.
