Bookmakers point to Trump victory in US elections

Nelson Moura

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October 22, 2024

Bookmakers point to Trump victory in US elections

As the US presidential race heats up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, several bookmakers are pointing to a Trump victory on November 5th.

Blockchain-based election betting site Polymarket has reported a 60 percent chance of a Trump victory, marking the first time this threshold has been crossed since late July.

Recently both Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported that the surge in betting was fueled by four accounts that collectively placed over $30 million in wagers.

Miriam Adelson contributes $95 mln to Pro-Trump Super PAC

Since Polymarket prohibits US residents from placing bets on US elections, with the company verifying all its significant traders to ensure they are not using VPNs to hide their actual locations, these users are believed to be overseas gamblers.

Presidential Election Winner 2024 — Source: Polymarket

Other prominent betting platforms echo this trend: Betfair places Trump’s odds at approximately 58 percent, while Kalshi assigns him a 57 percent chance, and PredictIt and Smarkets give him 54 percent and 58 percent, respectively.

Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from major markets, shows Trump with a 57 percent likelihood of winning, the most favorable margin since July 29th, up from around 48 percent at the end of September.

The emergence of legal election betting markets has added a new dimension to the political landscape, allowing citizens to wager on outcomes following a recent court ruling that lifted restrictions on such platforms.

During the 2020 US presidential election, more than $1 billion were believed to have been wagered worldwide on the possible winner even before polling day.

On October 2nd, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled in favor of Kalshi, a New York-based financial exchange, allowing it to offer event contracts on the presidential race and other electoral metrics. New contracts were made available on Kalshi and brokerage giant Interactive Brokers within days.

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s founder, reported over $12 million wagered shortly after the ban was lifted, while Barron’s noted more than $6.3 million had been bet on the Harris-Trump matchup.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expressed concerns regarding the legality of such markets, but the recent ruling has opened new avenues for political analysis.

Elon Musk, Bookmakers point to Trump victory in US elections — _{Elon Musk}

While traditional polling, such as that from The New York Times, indicates Harris leading Trump 50 percent to 47 percent, prediction markets present a contrasting narrative, with Kalshi estimating Trump has a 55 percent chance of victory.

Social media has also played a role in shaping these betting markets, with a recent post from Elon Musk boosting Trump’s odds on Polymarket after he claimed Trump was leading Harris in betting markets. Following Musk’s comments, Trump’s lead on the platform surged nearly 10 points.

The higher daily run-rate recorded during the October Golden Week, which took place from October 1st to 7th, contributed to a slowdown in the subsequent week. The daily rate fell to MOP514 million ($64.7 million), down from MOP846 million ($106 million) in the first two weeks, when the figures were buoyed by Golden Week.

Despite this slowdown, analysts expect October GGR to reach MOP21 billion ($2.63 billion), slightly exceeding earlier forecasts of MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion). If this target is met, October will represent the highest GGR recorded so far this year.

In the context of rising GGR forecasts for the month of October, JP Morgan notes that the downside risk to consensus estimates is limited for the fourth quarter of the year.

The report also indicates that mass GGR has recovered to 110-115 percent of pre-COVID levels, while VIP gaming has reached around 25 percent. These figures are an improvement over the recovery rates for the third quarter, which were 105-110 percent for mass gaming and 23-25 percent for VIP.

However, JP Morgan cautions against extrapolating these results for the entire quarter, as the strong Golden Week performance significantly influenced the figures. Nonetheless, the recovery signifies a positive shift following two consecutive quarters of decline.

As the earnings season approaches, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li highlight that investors will scrutinize the sustainability of this above-seasonal momentum for the remainder of the quarter. They aim to gain a clearer understanding of the ‘demand inflection’, influenced by the positive wealth effect and other stimuli.

Hong Kong considers easing age limits on horse racing to boost tourism

Hong Kong

Viviana Chan

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October 22, 2024

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Hong Kong considers easing age limits on horse racing to boost tourism

Hong Kong is exploring the possibility of easing age restrictions on horse racing events to boost tourism, according to Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Kevin Yeung Yun-hung.

_{Hong Kong Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Kevin Yeung Yun-hung}

In a radio interview cited by the South China Morning Post, Yeung stated that the government has been in discussions with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, encouraging the club to leverage its unique position to promote horse racing as a key tourist attraction.

He highlighted that few regions worldwide have reached the same scale as Hong Kong in horse racing, which regularly hosts international events that attract horses, owners, and enthusiasts from around the globe. Yeung emphasized the need to fully capitalize on this feature and mentioned ongoing discussions about whether the current age restrictions remain necessary.

Currently, individuals under 18 are not permitted to bet or enter premises where bets are accepted, including horse racing venues. Tourists aged 18 or above with valid travel documents can enjoy free entry to the Jockey Club’s public enclosure. Yeung noted that both the government and the Jockey Club share the goal of promoting horse racing as one of Hong Kong’s major attractions. They are exploring ways to make racecourses more accessible to tourists and promote events on a global scale.

When asked if the age restriction poses a challenge to boosting the city’s horse racing appeal, Yeung acknowledged the importance of limits but suggested they should be adaptable based on changing needs. He added that any necessary restrictions would be implemented after careful consideration.

In Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s recent policy address, the government proposed developing tourism offerings based on Hong Kong’s unique characteristics, including horse racing, alongside other types of tourism such as yacht, panda, cultural, and ecotourism.

Local reports earlier suggested that the government had already initiated talks with the Jockey Club about relaxing age limits at racecourses, potentially positioning them as family-friendly attractions for tourists.

It is worth noting that the Hong Kong Jockey Club reported a total turnover of HK$134.7 billion ($17.3 billion) for the 2023/24 season, down 4.5 percent from HK$141.1 billion ($18.1 billion) the previous year.

Meanwhile, in Macau, where gaming is the dominant industry, the Macau Jockey Club ceased operations in April this year, marking a failed attempt to transform horse racing into a tourism attraction amid the ongoing weakness in horse racing betting.

During the trip, the representatives visited MGM’s two properties MGM MACAU and MGM COTAI, convention and entertainment facilities, as well as the world heritage sites in Macau, immersing themselves in Macau’s unique blend of Eastern and Western cultural heritage and rich tourism offerings. Through the familiarization trip, MGM aims to promote the city’s “Tourism+” appeal to Japanese travelers and potential MICE groups.

MGM Cotai, MGM China, Macau — _{MGM Cotai}

MGM had already organized two familiarization trips during March and September for the travel trade industry from Seoul and Busan, South Korea. This Japanese delegation consisted of 16 representatives from Tokyo’s MICE, airline, and media sectors.

On October 15, MGM hosted a welcome dinner for the delegation at MGM COTAI, to which more than 20 industry peers and association representatives from Hong Kong and Macau were invited.

Distinguished guests at the dinner were Betty Fok, Head of the Destination Marketing Department of the Macao Government Tourism Office; Steve Chan, Senior Manager of the Promotional Activities and Development of Conventions and Exhibitions Department of the Macao Trade and Investment Promotion Institute; Vic Lam, Chief of the Division of Tourism, MICE and Commerce of the Economic Development Bureau of Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin; Kevin Wong, Assistant to Vice President, Commercial cum Regional General Manager – Greater Bay Area of Air Macau Company Limited; and the MGM’s management.

MGM hosts Fam-trip for Japanese travel trade industry to boost Macau's International tourism (1) — _{Guests of Honor performed a toast at the welcome dinner.}

To showcase Macau’s designation as the Creative City of Gastronomy, MGM arranged a welcome dinner with a lineup of five renowned MGM culinary heads, including Yang Dengquan, Executive Sous Chef who helms the Michelin Star and Black Pearl award-winning restaurant Five Foot Road; Homan Tsui, Executive Chef who leads the Black Pearl-winning restaurant Imperial Court; Tam Yim Chan, Executive Chef of Chún; Joao Costa Casimiro, Chef de Cuisine of Rossio; and Bruno Le Francois, Executive Pastry Chef of MGM. The sumptuous 10-hands dinner highlighted the essence of Macanese and Chinese cuisines with east-meet-west elements.

MGM hosts Fam-trip for Japanese travel trade industry to boost Macau's International tourism (2) — _{The welcome dinner highlighted the essence of Macanese and Chinese cuisines with a lineup of five renowned MGM culinary heads.}

Addressing the dinner, Dr. Iwan Dietschi, Senior Vice President of Hospitality of MGM, said, “Since last year, MGM has been proactively expanding our foreign tourist markets in line with the Macao SAR Government’s initiative. Japan has become the third largest among overseas tourist market for Macau and MGM is keen on further tapping into the Japanese market.”

“With Macau’s recent designation as the ‘Culture City of East Asia 2025’, we anticipate a stronger rapport and collaboration between Japan and Macau, in the context of deepening cultural and tourism exchange. To further build on the relationship between Japan and MGM, we are planning to organize more familiarization trips for the Japanese tourism industry. It is also in our plans to establish sales points in Tokyo and other cities in Japan, to serve the increasing demands of Japanese travelers.”

One of the representatives of the Japanese MICE delegation, Mr. Okuno, said, “We are delighted to have been invited by MGM for this familiarization trip, which has given us a deeper understanding of Macau’s unique tourism strengths and positioning. With its rich cultural tourism resources, Macau holds a strong appeal for the Japanese. In addition, the collaboration between Macau and Hengqin in the MICE sector presents exciting new opportunities. I look forward to seeing closer cooperation between MICE representatives from Macau and Japan, as we explore future opportunities to drive the sector forward together.”

MGM hosts Fam-trip for Japanese travel trade industry to boost Macau's International tourism (3) — _{The delegation visited Macau’s heritage sites, as well as the cultural tourism offerings at the Barra District and Macao Grand Prix Museum.}

MGM carefully crafted the itinerary for the Japanese delegation, which included visits to MGM’s hotels and convention facilities. In addition, MGM arranged the “Macau Cruise” for the delegation to traverse Barra and Coloane in comfort by sea. Along the way, they visited heritage sites such as the Ruins of St. Paul’s and A-Ma Temple, as well as the cultural tourism offerings at the Navy Yard in the revitalized Barra District.

Half-Maltese artist Tim Marsh is well known for his architectural style, composing works using dynamic geometric forms, patterns and lines to embed a sense of movement. His influences include his capoeira practice, which he has enjoyed since being a teenager. The Brazilian martial art influences the tribal elements of his graffiti work.

His career began in the fashion industry in 2006, where he created designs for clothing brands and directed the fashion pages of French magazine Snatch. He has previously worked with the likes of L’Oreal, Kenzo and Smart cars. Since 2009, the artist has been involved in light painting and held shows in Malta and France.

Ahead of BGaming’s attendance at SiGMA Malta, the muralist has produced artistic interpretations of BGaming’s top games characters from titles such as Wild Tiger, Book of Cats MEGAWAYS™, Elvis Frog TRUEWAYS, Aztec Magic Bonanza, and Gold Rush – Johnny Cash.

This marks the studio’s fourth and final ‘When Art Meets Gaming’ collaboration of the year, after they teamed up with creators Gonçalo MAR, Mr Cenz and Clandestinos Art throughout their jam-packed 2024 event calendar.

Kate Puteiko, CMO at BGaming, said: “We are proud to collaborate on our eighth artistic partnership with the hugely talented Tim Marsh, a highly respected muralist who has breathed new life into our iconic characters once more. Supporting artists in the cities we visit remains one of the greatest passions at BGaming and we look forward to continuing our dedication to giving back next year.”

Artist Tim Marsh said: “I found this work quite unexpected as I am used to working on murals and live paintings. This was a different exercise from what I’m used to but to be working from a computer and not fighting the elements was enjoyable. Only a few days before, I had been struggling to finish a wall in the Parisian rain. I am used to taking inspiration from hand painting artwork in real life, so this presented a welcome and unique challenge for me.”

Pragmatic Play unveils spooky surprises with Big Bass Halloween 2

Elsewhere

AGBrief Editorial

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October 21, 2024

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Pragmatic Play unveils spooky surprises with Big Bass Halloween 2

Pragmatic Play, a leading content supplier to the iGaming industry, has released Big Bass Halloween 2, the latest addition to its popular Big Bass franchise and a Halloween-themed sequel that more than doubles the original’s maximum win potential.

The possessed fisherman returns in this ominous 5×3 slot, where free spins modifiers add even more chances to win in the bonus game.

Landing 3-5 scatters triggers the bonus game with an initial 10-20 free spins. If just two scatters land on the reels, a third can be hit through one of two random features.

Before the bonus game begins, a selection of free spins modifiers can be awarded randomly, including extra free spins, more money symbols, and the opportunity to start the bonus trail at level two.

During the feature, the fisherman collects symbols to round up the value of all money symbols on the screen – these can be worth up to 5,000x each. If collect symbols land without any money symbols in view, or vice versa, a feature can randomly trigger to award wins. Every fourth fisherman awards 10 additional free spins and a money symbol multiplier of 2x, 3x, and finally 10x, helping players to reel in wins of up to 5,000x.

Big Bass Halloween 2 is the latest addition to Pragmatic Play’s popular fishing-themed slots series, following recent hits Big Bass Mission Fishin’ and Big Bass Vegas Double Down Deluxe.

Irina Cornides, Chief Operating Officer at Pragmatic Play, said: “Big Bass Halloween 2 brings free spins modifiers to one of Pragmatic Play’s most successful slots series, helping players to reel in wins of up to 5,000x.”

Zitro’s Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Committee will conduct an employee training program to promote the adoption of responsible practices in all daily activities. In this way, Zitro is committed to strictly complying with all applicable legislation and other energy efficiency, use, and consumption requirements.

“We recognize the importance of sustainability and are fully aware of the environmental impact of our energy consumption,” stated Marta Cuesta, VP of Product and Development at Zitro. “Therefore, we are committed to implementing an energy policy that helps us mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions, setting an example in our industry and driving significant changes towards a more sustainable future.”

Good morning. Crown Resorts has sold the One Queensbridge development site in Melbourne for $57.05 million as part of Blackstone’s strategy to recover the group from financial struggles. Originally intended for a $1.17 billion hotel and apartment complex, those plans were suspended in 2019. Meanwhile, INTERPOL announced that a major international sting operation against illegal football gambling has resulted in over 5,100 arrests and the recovery of more than $59 million in illicit earnings. In Macau, authorities are investigating complaints by mainland Chinese tour groups that they were asked for entry fees by tour guides when entering casinos in Macau.

What you need to know

Crown Resorts has officially sold the One Queensbridge development site in Melbourne as part of efforts to improve its financial condition.
INTERPOL led global sting against illegal football gambling leads to over 5,000 arrests and the recovery of more than $59 million in illicit earnings.
Macau tourism officials to probe allegations that tour groups are illegally charging visitors entry fees at casinos.

On the radar

Philippines flags ex-POGO workers operating scam farms after the ban.
Asian American (AAEC) loses appeal in legacy Macau gaming concession battle.
Macau police strengthen cooperation with local hotels to combat crime.
Miriam Adelson contributes $95M to Pro-Trump Super PAC.
Genting Singapore announces the dissolution of seven subsidiaries in Japan.

AGB Intelligence

AUSTRALIA

Crown Resorts sells One Queensbridge site for $57 million

Crown Resorts has sold the One Queensbridge development site in Melbourne for AU$85 million ($57.05 million) as part of a financial restructuring strategy led by its private equity owner, Blackstone. Originally intended for a $1.75 billion hotel and apartment complex, the plans were abandoned in 2019. Crown Resorts reported a narrowed loss of AU$164.8 million ($111 million) for the fiscal year ending June 30th, 2024, a 17.4 percent improvement from the previous year.

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According to public broadcaster TDM Canal Macau, the courts in 2022 had rejected its claim that a partnership signed between Asian American and Las Vegas Sands was valid. The Taiwanese-led firm had claimed that the American partner had breached its contract with the company and signed on with Galaxy to be granted a sub-concession for Macau gaming.

Las Vegas Sands, the Venetian-palazzo, Asian American Entertainment (AAEC) — _{Las Vegas Sands}

Two years later, the appeal has again been rejected by the courts, putting in question whether the company’s claim for some MOP90 billion ($11.3 billion) in damages will be deemed legitimate by a future legal action, now only possible via the Court of Final Appeal.

According to the company’s lawyer cited by the broadcaster, the ruling by the Court of Second Appeal was met unfavorably by Asian American, however the lawyer has not yet received the ruling and what possible countermeasures that could be filed.

The legal team behind Asian American has promised to continue its legal battle and will move the case to the Court of Final Appeal.

Bookmakers point to Trump victory in US elections

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Macau GGR estimated at $1.83B through the first 20 days of October

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is estimated to have reached approximately MOP14.6 billion ($1.83 billion) for the first 20 days of October, implying a daily run-rate of MOP730 million ($91.4 million), according to investment bank JP Morgan.

Hong Kong considers easing age limits on horse racing to boost tourism

Hong Kong is exploring the possibility of easing age restrictions on horse racing events to boost tourism, according to Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Kevin Yeung Yun-hung.

Table of Contents

MGM hosts Fam-trip for Japanese travel trade industry to boost Macau’s international tourism

MGM organized a five-day familiarization trip for Japanese travel trade representatives from Tokyo, held between October 14 and 18, in support of the Macao SAR Government’s initiative to expand the international tourist market.

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BGaming concludes 2024 art collaborations with final showcase in Malta

BGaming, a fast-growing iGaming content provider has unveiled its final art and gaming mash-up of 2024 as part of its ongoing creative project ‘When Art Meets Gaming’.

Pragmatic Play unveils spooky surprises with Big Bass Halloween 2

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Zitro adopts comprehensive Energy Efficiency measures across all facilities

Zitro, a leading company in the gaming industry, announced the implementation of an energy efficiency policy that aims to improve energy management across all company facilities.

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Daily Asia Gaming eBrief: Crown Resorts divests One Queensbridge for $57M

What you need to know

On the radar

AGB Intelligence

AUSTRALIA

Crown Resorts sells One Queensbridge site for $57 million

Corporate Spotlight

Altenar brings premium sportsbook solution to Asia

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Industry Updates

Table of Contents

Asian American loses appeal against Sands over initial gaming sub-concession

Asian American Entertainment (AAEC) has seen its latest appeal denied by the Court of Second Instance in Macau, in another blow to its legal dispute with Las Vegas Sands and Venetian Macau.

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Genting Singapore announces dissolution of 7 subsidiaries in Japan

Genting Singapore has officially declared the members’ voluntary dissolution and liquidation of seven several indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries incorporated in Japan.

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