Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is estimated to have reached approximately MOP14.6 billion ($1.83 billion) for the first 20 days of October, implying a daily run-rate of MOP730 million ($91.4 million), according to investment bank JP Morgan.
The higher daily run-rate recorded during the October Golden Week, which took place from October 1st to 7th, contributed to a slowdown in the subsequent week. The daily rate fell to MOP514 million ($64.7 million), down from MOP846 million ($106 million) in the first two weeks, when the figures were buoyed by Golden Week.
Despite this slowdown, analysts expect October GGR to reach MOP21 billion ($2.63 billion), slightly exceeding earlier forecasts of MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion). If this target is met, October will represent the highest GGR recorded so far this year.
In the context of rising GGR forecasts for the month of October, JP Morgan notes that the downside risk to consensus estimates is limited for the fourth quarter of the year.
The report also indicates that mass GGR has recovered to 110-115 percent of pre-COVID levels, while VIP gaming has reached around 25 percent. These figures are an improvement over the recovery rates for the third quarter, which were 105-110 percent for mass gaming and 23-25 percent for VIP.
However, JP Morgan cautions against extrapolating these results for the entire quarter, as the strong Golden Week performance significantly influenced the figures. Nonetheless, the recovery signifies a positive shift following two consecutive quarters of decline.
As the earnings season approaches, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li highlight that investors will scrutinize the sustainability of this above-seasonal momentum for the remainder of the quarter. They aim to gain a clearer understanding of the ‘demand inflection’, influenced by the positive wealth effect and other stimuli.
