Analysts from Deutsche Bank raise MGM China’s 4Q23 EBITDAR forecast from the previous $231 million to $254 million due to the strong performance in the period.

The expected slower recovery pace in the market has prompted Deutsche Bank to revise its 2024 MGM China property EBITDAR forecast, reflecting a 4 percent decrease from their previous estimate.

Deutsche Bank’s latest forecasts for Macau have taken a bullish turn, as the Bank believes Macau offers a 'most compelling upside,' given that gaming is still somewhat undervalued historically and there are favorable conditions ahead.

Deutsche Bank is “firmly” of the view that the current six incumbent concessionaires currently operating in the market “will maintain their licenses,” the brokerage noted on a report from a recent field trip to a booming Las Vegas strip.

Deutsche Bank presented an optimistic forecast for 3Q and 4Q2023, with the expectation of GGR reaching $24.3 billion, a jump of more than double current revenue trends. 

Brokerage firm Deutsche Bank has significantly reduced its GGR forecast for Macau’s second quarter, down to $2.96 billion from an earlier estimate of $4.39 billion. 

Deutsche Bank notes that achieving Light & Wonder's 2025 $1.4 billion adjusted EBITDA target will be a challenging task, as their forecast indicates the figure is 'well below' the goals articulated by management.

Macau industry-wide 3Q23 gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau is still 31 percent below the 3Q19 levels, according to the calculation of Deutsche Bank following all six gaming operators' reported financial results.

Deutsche Bank estimates that Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2023 may reach $22.81 billion, marking a 332 percent year-on-year increase. However, even if this estimate is realized, the GGR for this year will still be 38 percent lower than the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

In the latest investment memo published by Deutsche Bank, analyst Carlo Santarelli notes that Macau gaming operator Sands China, which has been the market share leader, is facing new challenges regarding rivalry in both gaming market share and hotel room inventory.