Deutsche Bank estimates that Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2023 may reach $22.81 billion, marking a 332 percent year-on-year increase. However, even if this estimate is realized, the GGR for this year will still be 38 percent lower than the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Macau’s casino GGR stood at MOP148.5 billion ($18.4 billion) for the ten months ending on October 31st, reflecting a 315.6 percent increase from the previous year.
The research conducted by analyst Carlo Santarelli indicates that the $2.44 billion GGR result in October represents a 30.6 percent sequential improvement (+26.3 percent per day) compared to September.
‘The +30.6 percent sequential improvement per day is well ahead of historical trends. The average sequential uptick in October, relative to September, from 2013 to 2019, was +16.2 percent. This was partly influenced by Typhoon activity that suppressed September results.’
Deutsche Bank also estimates that Macau’s November GGR may experience a 10.4 percent decline, which compares to the 11.2 percent average sequential decline in November relative to October from 2013 to 2019.
Deutsche Bank further predicts that the Macau gaming industry will not return to 2019 levels until 2024. They estimate that for next year, Macau’s GGR may reach $25.88 billion, a 14 percent increase compared to 2023, but still 29 percent lower than in 2019.
As the pace of recovery slows, the analyst’s latest forecast suggests that 2025 GGR may only experience a 5 percent year-on-year increase to $27.23 billion, representing a 26 percent decrease from 2019.
