FIFA World Cup weighs on Macau June GGR, July outlook soft: analysts

The 2026 FIFA World Cup continued to weigh on Macau’s gaming demand in June, with analysts saying the market’s 12.1 percent year-on-year decline was broadly in line with expectations, while the sequential daily run-rate was weaker than normal seasonal trends.

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP18.52 billion ($2.29 billion) in June, according to official data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ).

The figure was down 12.1 percent from a year earlier and 18.1 percent lower than in May.

The June result was equivalent to around MOP617 million ($76.4 million) per day, according to Citigroup. The brokerage said Macau’s June GGR came in at around 78 percent of its June 2019 level and was ‘largely in line’ with its estimate and market consensus.

Deutsche Bank said the June result was consistent with recent channel checks, which had pointed to a year-on-year decline of between 10 percent and 13 percent, ‘driven by the World Cup’.

The bank noted that June’s daily GGR run-rate was down 15.4 percent from May, weaker than historical seasonal trends. It said the average sequential decline in June compared with May was 8.6 percent during the 2013 to 2019 period, meaning the latest monthly drop was around 675 basis points worse than the pre-pandemic trend.

June GGR was also 22.2 percent below the level recorded in June 2019. This compared with declines of 12.9 percent in May, 15.7 percent in April and 12.5 percent in March against the same months in 2019, according to Deutsche Bank.

Analysts expect the World Cup to continue affecting demand in early July. Citigroup forecasts Macau GGR to recover to MOP21.0 billion ($2.60 billion) in July, or about MOP677 million ($83.8 million) per day, but still implying a 5 percent year-on-year decline.

The brokerage said it expects the tournament to ‘continue to drag GGR’ until the final match on July 19th.

Deutsche Bank is slightly more cautious, forecasting July GGR at around MOP20.6 billion ($2.55 billion), down 7.9 percent year-on-year.

However, Citigroup said Macau’s event calendar could help offset part of the weakness. Concerts and entertainment events scheduled in early July include performances by Anson Lo, Gareth.T, Rosy Zhao and NCT JNJM, while post-tournament events featuring Eason Chan, Joey Yung and Hins Cheung could ‘kick-start Macau gaming recovery’.

Despite the near-term pressure, Deutsche Bank maintained a positive full-year view. The bank forecasts Macau GGR of MOP64.6 billion ($8.0 billion) in the third quarter, up 2.2 percent year-on-year, and MOP263.4 billion ($32.6 billion) for 2026, representing a 5.2 percent increase from 2025.