Investor attention is shifting from the World Cup’s impact on Macau’s gaming revenue to the upcoming earnings season, with analysts looking for clearer signs of demand during the second half of 2026.
While July is still expected to post another year-on-year decline, industry checks showed average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) of around MOP634 million over the first 19 days of the month.
The figures imply full-month GGR of between MOP20.1 billion and MOP20.9 billion ($2.49 billion to $2.59 billion), representing a decline of between 5 percent and 9 percent from a year earlier.
The market improved during the latest week, with average daily GGR rising 9 percent week-on-week to around MOP678 million. The increase was supported by stronger volumes and more favorable VIP luck, even as the final World Cup matches were being played.
Mass-market revenue was broadly flat from June, while VIP rolling volume was stable to 2 percent higher. The VIP win rate remained above normal at between 3.9 percent and 4.1 percent.
‘We expect the GGR run rate to improve gradually as summer visitor volumes pick up and non-gaming events continue to unfold,’ HSBC analysts wrote.
The brokerage expects average daily revenue of between MOP670 million and MOP740 million over the remainder of July, supported by summer travel and a busy schedule of concerts and entertainment events at the city’s integrated resorts.
Attention is also turning to second-quarter earnings, with Las Vegas Sands scheduled to report this week. Jefferies said upcoming results should provide further indications of how operators are managing softer seasonal conditions and challenging comparisons with 2025.
The brokerage forecasts Macau GGR growth of 2 percent in the third quarter and 4 percent in the fourth quarter, taking full-year revenue to around MOP260 billion ($32.2 billion), up 5 percent year-on-year.
Jefferies said it would view ‘low- to mid-single-digit percentage GGR growth’ against the difficult year-ago comparisons as ‘a solid outcome’ that could help restore investor confidence in the market’s medium-term outlook.
