Analysts from Deutsche Bank raise MGM China’s 4Q23 EBITDAR forecast from the previous $231 million to $254 million due to the strong performance in the period.
According to the investment memo, Deutsche Bank notes that the research team have observed strong October results. ‘Management noted that October set a monthly EBITDA record in Macau and that it had achieved a 15.5 percent GGR market share on the 3Q23 earnings call.’
‘We believe the strength in October flowed through and potentially accelerated. However, we have taken a conservative approach to our modeling. While MGM share gains were questioned in the early stages of the recovery, we believe market participants are beginning to appreciate the strides made in the market with share gains.’
The broker also notes that the 200 incremental tables provide MGM a distinct advantage during high volume/holiday periods, such as Golden Week and the upcoming Chinese New Year.
MGM Resorts will report 4Q23 results on February 13th, post-market close.
Deutsche Bank also raises the EBITDAR forecast in Las Vegas from $809 million to $843 million.
Given recent upward revisions to 2024/2025 market forecasts for Las Vegas and Macau, the broker raises MGM Resorts property EBITDAR forecasts for both regions. The 2024 consolidated property EBITDAR forecast is up 1.4 percent from the prior estimate.
MGM China saw a stunning 3Q23, with net revenues up some 829 percent, to $812.52 million, a rise of 10 percent compared to the same quarter in 2019.
Adjusted property EBITDAR rose by 23 percent compared to the same pre-pandemic quarter, to $226 million, reversing a loss of $70 million in 3Q22.
MGM China is primarily owned by MGM Resorts International. MGM China is a holding company of MGM Grand Paradise, SA, which holds one of the six gaming concessions to run casino games in Macau.
MGM Grand Paradise, SA owns and operates MGM Macau, an integrated resort located on the Macau Peninsula, and MGM Cotai, an integrated resort in Cotai, which opened in early 2018 and more than doubles our presence in Macau.
