Deutsche Bank’s latest forecasts for Macau have taken a bullish turn, as the Bank believes Macau offers a ‘most compelling upside,’ given that gaming is still somewhat undervalued historically and there are favorable conditions ahead.
The bank cites uncertainty about Macau’s recovery and China’s long-term plans as ‘headwinds for investment’, but believes these concerns will diminish as the fundamentals come into focus.
The Bank also notes the ceiling in gaming revenue for mass and VIP markets and property EBITDA also presents a challenge for Macau’s growth.
However the bank believes geopolitical and macro concerns will fade.
Analysts with the group noted that 2Q23 Macau GGR of approximately $5.7 billion was up by $1.4 billion, a 31 percent quarter-on-quarter increase from 1Q23 levels, but also down about 38 percent from 2Q19 levels, with both mass and VIP GGR showing quarterly sequential improvements of more than 20 percent.
The Bank believes mass GGR will continue its improvement as it becomes easier to access the market and that VIP revenue will also improve against early predictions about a recovery limit.
The bank has assumed 3Q23 GGR will grow 2-3 percent from 2Q23 levels and that 4Q23 should increase 8-10 percent based on current 2023 GGR performance, taking into consideration historical seasonality of GGR over the two periods.