Combined trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi for the 2026 FIFA World Cup has crossed $2 billion as the tournament’s group stage gets underway, according to figures from both platforms and tracking data published by DeFi Rate.
The milestone was reached on the tournament’s opening day, June 11th, when Mexico hosted South Africa in Mexico City. Polymarket’s standalone World Cup champion market alone has accumulated just over $2 billion in cumulative volume since the contract launched in July 2025, with more than $66 million changing hands in the 24 hours surrounding the tournament opener and pooled liquidity across the event standing at $352.7 million, according to Polymarket data.
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated event contract exchange that primarily serves the US market, has recorded over $130 million in volume on its Men’s World Cup winner market alone as of June 11th, according to a Kalshi company publication, ranking it as the platform’s third-largest live offering, behind only its 2028 Democratic presidential nominee market ($125 million) and the 2026 NBA Finals ($290 million).
At the time of writing, Spain leads on implied championship probability across both platforms at approximately 17 percent, with France at 16 percent, Portugal at 11.3 percent, and England at 10.9 percent. Argentina, the defending champion, is priced at 8.8 percent and Brazil at 8.3 percent.
On Polymarket, the France winner market has attracted $40.9 million in individual contract volume and Spain $33.6 million, the two highest single-nation figures on that platform. Kalshi traders also project Spain as the most likely finalist, with France, England, Brazil, and Portugal identified as the other serious contenders to reach the final, according to the Kalshi roundup published on June 11.
The US, as tournament co-host, has generated $50.9 million in trading volume on Polymarket despite carrying only around a 3 percent implied championship probability, a disparity that reflects the volume of retail-driven participation rather than informed price discovery. That figure contrasts with the market’s treatment of the host nation as more of a novelty contract than a serious championship contender.
DeFi Rate, which tracks prediction market volume across platforms, projects Kalshi will generate up to $1.47 billion in total World Cup volume across all contract types by the end of the tournament, with a high-case scenario of $1.93 billion if US domestic interest in the event spikes. Of Kalshi’s base-case projection, approximately $1.19 billion – roughly 80 percent – is expected to come from individual match-outcome contracts, which historically accumulate nearly 90 percent of their volume on match day itself. The Kalshi winner market alone is modeled at $253 million by tournament close, which would surpass the platform’s March Madness champion contract ($169 million) as the largest single futures market it has run for a sporting event.
Across both platforms combined, DeFi Rate estimates Americans alone will trade more than $2.5 billion on World Cup prediction markets, a figure that excludes the volume Polymarket records from its approximately 180-country global user base. Robinhood’s affiliated Rothera exchange, which launched World Cup markets on June 5th, is adding further volume through a partnership that routes some of its contracts through Kalshi’s infrastructure.
The scale of prediction market activity sits alongside, rather than inside, the broader sportsbook wagering picture. H2 Gambling Capital projects total legal sportsbook handle on the 2026 World Cup at approximately $60 billion, up 71 percent from the $35 billion recorded during Qatar 2022, a figure that excludes prediction market volume entirely. The 48-team format, producing 104 matches against Qatar’s 64, provides a structurally larger wagering surface across the six-week schedule running to July 19th.
The regulatory environment surrounding the prediction market category remains unsettled as the tournament begins. The CFTC proposed new rules last week that would restrict certain contract categories, accepting public comments for 45 days. Massachusetts has issued a ban on Kalshi’s sports contracts, Nevada initiated enforcement action that prompted Polymarket to exit the state, and Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi, according to KuCoin reporting.
Kalshi, as a CFTC-designated contract market, frames its World Cup contracts as regulated financial event instruments rather than gambling products and argues they are legal in all 50 US states under federal oversight — a position that the ongoing state-level enforcement actions continue to contest.
Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket across all categories reached $24 billion in April 2026, more than four times the figure recorded eight months earlier, according to Pew Research Center data cited by ESPN, with sports contracts accounting for 80 percent of Kalshi’s total volume since July 2024.
