Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to slightly exceed targets and potentially reach MOP245 billion ($30.6 billion) in 2025, according to CreditSights.
The financial services company, part of the Fitch Group, has published a comprehensive outlook for Macau’s gaming sector, highlighting a robust recovery trajectory for the industry.
According to the report, Macau’s GGR for fiscal year 2024 (FY24) is projected to rise by 24 percent year-on-year, reaching MOP227 billion ($28.4 billion).
This figure surpasses the FY24 target of MOP216 billion ($27 billion), although it still represents only 78 percent of the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. Notably, the mass market segment continues to dominate, accounting for 76 percent of overall GGR.
Visitor arrivals in Macau have also seen significant improvement, with a total of 34.9 million tourists recorded in FY24, marking a 24 percent increase compared to the previous year and reaching 89 percent of 2019 levels.
Mainland Chinese tourists remain the largest group, making up 70 percent of total arrivals. However, GGR per visitor remains 12.5 percent below 2019 figures, standing at MOP6,493 ($810).
In terms of non-gaming revenue, Macau’s non-gaming spending for the first nine months of 2024 reached MOP56.2 billion ($7.0 billion), an 8 percent increase year-on-year and 118 percent of the levels recorded in the same period of 2019.
CreditSights anticipates continued growth in non-gaming expenditures, driven by increased investments from casino operators and ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.
Looking ahead, the brokerage forecasts that Macau’s GGR will slightly exceed the FY25 target of MOP240 billion ($29.9 billion), potentially reaching MOP245 billion ($30.6 billion).
This optimistic projection is contingent on further improvements in tourist arrivals and a modest increase in GGR per visitor in 2025. The report also notes that hotel occupancy is expected to improve as casino renovations and room conversions are completed.
For 2025, CreditSights identifies several positive catalysts for the gaming sector in Macau, including the further easing of travel restrictions, the completion of casino renovations and enhanced entertainment offerings, and macroeconomic support measures implemented by Chinese authorities that are likely to boost domestic consumption and consumer sentiment.
