Macau casino operators’ operating leverage in 4Q25 was partly offset by incremental operating expenses linked to the NBA China Games, the 15th National Games and costs associated with satellite casino closures, according to a recent investment memo from Citigroup.
The view echoes a mid-November note from the same investment bank, which indicated that hotel demand from National Games athletes had led to a slight softening in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR).
In its 4Q25 earnings preview, Citigroup said that absent these additional costs, operating leverage across the Macau gaming industry would have been materially stronger. Despite higher expenses, the bank expects both GGR and EBITDA growth to continue into 2026, forecasting industry GGR to rise 7 percent year-on-year and EBITDA to increase 9 percent year-on-year.
The analysis was authored by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, who reiterated a constructive stance on Macau gaming stocks and advised investors to accumulate quality names. Galaxy Entertainment, Wynn Macau and Sands China were cited as the bank’s top picks.
Citigroup forecasts Macau’s industry EBITDA increased 13 percent year-on-year to approximately $2.25 billion in 4Q25, driven by an estimated 15 percent year-on-year increase in GGR, or 12 percent growth in net revenue. However, incremental operating expenses related to hosting the NBA China Games, the 15th National Games and SJM’s satellite casino closures are expected to have offset part of the operating leverage that would otherwise result from revenue growth. As a result, industry EBITDA margin is projected to have risen modestly to 27.5 percent in 4Q25, compared with 27 percent in the same period of 2024.
In terms of market share, Citigroup expects Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China to post the largest quarterly gains. Galaxy’s market share is forecast to have increased by one percentage point to 21.7 percent in 4Q25, supported by concerts at Galaxy Macau and favorable VIP hold rates. MGM China is projected to have lifted its market share to 16.4 percent, benefiting in part from solid VIP performance at MGM Cotai.
Sands China is also expected to have gained 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to reach a 24.5 percent market share, while Wynn Macau’s share likely remained flat at 13.2 percent. In contrast,SJM Holdings is expected to have recorded the largest decline, falling to 10.5 percent, primarily due to satellite casino closures. Melco is also forecast to have lost market share, declining by 0.9 percentage points to 13.8 percent.
Citigroup highlighted Galaxy Entertainment as the operator with the strongest year-on-year EBITDA growth, projecting a 31 percent increase to HK$4.24 billion ($544 million) in 4Q25. By contrast, Sands China’s EBITDA growth is expected to have lagged peers, rising 8 percent year-on-year to $616 million, as higher event-related operating costs weighed on margins.
