Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) saw a mild moderation in the first half of November, a trend Citigroup attributes to hotel rooms being temporarily occupied by athletes participating in the National Games.
The bank said the arrangement briefly reduced the average length of stay — and play — among gaming patrons, resulting in a small dip in gaming activity.
Macau is co-hosting the 15th National Games in 2025 together with Guangdong and Hong Kong, marking the first time the city has taken part as an organizer of China’s largest multi-sport event. The games are expected to bring thousands of athletes, officials, and support staff to Macau, placing short-term pressure on hotel capacity while showcasing the city’s ability to stage large-scale international sporting events.
It is also worth noting that over the past weekend, Macau hosted four days of Grand Prix races, which brought in additional event participants who are not typically gaming customers, adding further pressure on hotel inventory.
According to industry sources cited by Citigroup, GGR for the first 16 days of November is estimated to have reached MOP11.1 billion ($1.39 billion), translating to a daily run rate of about MOP671 million ($83.9 million). This represents roughly a 6 percent decline compared with the average daily GGR of MOP711 million ($88.9 million) recorded during the first nine days of the month.
Citigroup noted that VIP volumes eased by 6 to 8 percent month-on-month, while mass-market GGR fell by about 8 to 10 percent. The VIP hold rate, however, appeared largely unchanged.
The bank is maintaining its full-month GGR forecast of MOP20.5 billion ($2.56 billion) for November, equivalent to 90 percent of the level recorded in November 2019 and an 11 percent year-on-year increase. This assumes the market will continue to average around MOP671 million ($83.9 million) per day for the remainder of the month.
The moderation follows a strong performance in October, when Macau posted its highest monthly GGR since the onset of the pandemic. Revenue reached MOP24.09 billion ($3.01 billion), up 15.9 percent year-on-year and surpassing the previous post-pandemic high of MOP22.16 billion ($2.77 billion) set in August by approximately MOP1.9 billion ($237.5 million).
Macau’s robust visitation recovery is also reinforcing confidence in the broader tourism outlook. Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, director of the Macao Government Tourism Office, said the city is on track to attract between 38 million and 39 million visitors in 2025.
Official data show Macau welcomed 29.67 million arrivals in the first three quarters of 2025, a 14.5 percent year-on-year increase. Should total arrivals reach 39 million or more next year, the city would effectively return to its 2019 peak of nearly 39.4 million visitors.
