Shifting visitor demographics and sustained economic headwinds from mainland China are significantly undermining the potential for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to return to pre-pandemic levels, according to Professor Zeng Zhonglu of the Center for Gaming and Tourism Studies at Macao Polytechnic University.

Speaking to AGB during the G2E Asia conference held in Macau, Professor Zeng highlighted alarming trends that point to long-term challenges for the SAR’s gaming industry, suggesting that GGR may not return to pre-COVID levels in the foreseeable future.

“The government expects monthly GGR of MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion), but figures for the first four months of 2025 have consistently fallen short,” he stated.

The causes, Zeng explained, are multi-faceted. A key factor is the weakening mainland Chinese economy and the resulting decline in consumer spending.

“Even though hotel occupancy has remained stable, the average daily room rates in mainland cities dropped by around 8 percent in Q3 last year. This indicates that tourists may be traveling, but they are spending less,” he noted. “This trend is reflected in Macau as well — per capita spending and retail sales among visitors have both decreased.”

Another critical concern is the evolving structure of Macau’s visitor base. Although overall tourist numbers have nearly returned to pre-COVID levels, the composition has shifted significantly. “We are seeing an increase in elderly travelers and those under 15, while the most economically productive age groups — particularly those aged 25 to 34 and 45 to 54 — are declining,” said Zeng.

In the first quarter of 2025, visitors aged 55 and over accounted for 28 percent of total arrivals, up from just 21 percent in 2017. The number of young dependents also rose, while mid-aged groups with higher spending power either stagnated or declined. “This demographic shift is not favorable for gaming or retail consumption,” Zeng warned.

This stands in sharp contrast to Las Vegas, where the share of younger adult visitors has increased in recent years, while the proportion of senior tourists has declined — a more favorable trend for gaming revenue.

According to AGB’s analysis, when comparing 2019 to 2024, the under-15 age group saw a 6.3 percent increase in tourist numbers. Meanwhile, the economically productive 25–34 age group declined by 25.7 percent, and the 45–54 age group fell by 21.2 percent. 

The elder demographic (>=65 years) experienced a notable increase of 21.4 percent during this period. This illustrates a modest rise in the youngest tourist demographic, a significant drop in key working-age segments, and a substantial growth in the number of senior visitors.

Zeng also emphasized that geographic proximity is influencing visitor behavior. “Visitors from nearby regions such as Zhuhai and Guangdong have surged due to relaxed travel rules. But the closer they live, the less they tend to spend — the novelty wears off quickly,” he said.

The academic cited survey data showing that while 60 percent of visitors from provinces beyond Guangdong would gamble in Macau, only around 23 percent of Hong Kong visitors and 40 percent of those from Guangdong would do the same.

On the issue of broader economic recovery, Zeng was cautiously realistic. “If the number of visitors continues to grow, it could partially offset declining per capita spending,” he said. “But the extent of that compensation will depend on China’s broader economic trajectory. Without recovery, spending will remain sluggish.”

Regulatory pressure and the end of the junket era

Although this is not a new issue, the scholar reiterated that the decline in GGR is also linked to increased regulatory pressure from mainland China, particularly the criminalization of cross-border gambling.

Zeng pointed to recent amendments to the criminal code that introduced a new offense — organizing cross-border gambling — which did not exist previously. “This legal shift has dismantled the traditional junket system that used to channel VIP players from the mainland to Macau. That channel has effectively closed,” he explained.

Even high-end mass market play, once seen as a potential substitute for the defunct VIP segment, has not matched previous spending levels. “According to data from Sands, high-end mass market customers have shown the most resilience, but this segment alone cannot make up for the absence of VIP revenue,” Zeng said.

Regional competition looms

Looking ahead, Zeng warned of intensifying regional competition. Japan’s integrated resort project in Osaka, set to launch operations by 2030, could attract a significant share of high-spending mainland tourists, particularly from northern provinces. “For travelers from northern China, Japan is not only closer than Macau but also offers diversified attractions such as shopping, dining, and cultural experiences,” he said.

In contrast, Macau faces physical limitations. “Most of Macau’s developable land is already in use. Future growth in hospitality and entertainment capacity will be constrained,” he noted. Some operators, such as Galaxy, have begun considering Hengqin as a spillover destination for accommodation and events.

Despite the rebound in tourist volume, Zeng cautioned against focusing solely on numbers. “Las Vegas has shown that targeting younger and more affluent segments is a more sustainable strategy,” he said. “Macau cannot rely solely on visitor numbers. Without improving the quality — particularly the spending capacity — of its tourists, the gaming industry will struggle to meet government revenue targets.”