New events, fresh supply and rising wealth to drive Macau GGR to $30.7B in 2025: Jefferies

Viviana Chan

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November 13, 2025

New events, fresh supply and rising wealth to drive Macau GGR to $30.7B in 2025: Jefferies

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to reach MOP246 billion ($30.7 billion) in 2025, according to analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei from Jefferies.

The projection is broadly in line with market expectations and exceeds the Macau government’s estimate of MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion) for the year.

In a research report published on Thursday, Jefferies said Macau’s gaming recovery continues to gain traction, supported by a stronger events calendar, new property openings, increased incentive programs for players, and the positive wealth effect generated by rising A-share, Hang Seng Index, and cryptocurrency markets. These factors are expected to ‘support GGR growth,’ particularly within the premium mass and VIP segments.

Jefferies highlighted that October GGR reached MOP24 billion ($3 billion), the highest monthly performance since Macau’s reopening, representing 15.9 percent year-on-year growth. Average daily revenue in early November also remained strong, driven by improving liquidity and rising visitor spending.

Macau October GGR tops $3B, breaking record since pandemic

The report noted that stock market recovery, increased private-equity activity, and a revival in IPO pipelines have contributed to ‘wealth creation,’ further supporting gaming demand.

Based on stronger fourth-quarter momentum, the analysts raised their 4Q25 GGR forecast to MOP67.9 billion ($8.48 billion), up 13 percent year-on-year. This revision underpins the full-year projection of MOP246 billion, representing approximately 6 percent growth.

In addition, the brokerage maintained its GGR growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Events, new supply and incentives expected to drive growth

The report points to a robust pipeline of concerts, shows, and sports events across major integrated resorts—including Galaxy Macau, The Venetian, and the Londoner Arena—as key drivers of incremental visitation and gaming revenue. Jefferies identified dozens of entertainment events scheduled between late 2025 and early 2026, many of which are already sold out, reflecting strong demand for premium leisure offerings.

New hotel and entertainment capacity—including openings under Galaxy Phase 4—is also set to enhance Macau’s overall appeal. Jefferies said these ‘new properties’ and large-scale facility upgrades will help operators attract higher-value customers during key travel periods.

The analysts also highlighted rising incentive programs, particularly within the premium mass and VIP tiers, as operators adjust their strategies to stay competitive amid a shift toward experience-driven gaming. These programs are expected to expand further in 2025.

According to the proposal, the Macau National Museum of Culture is tentatively planned for the coastal area east of the Macau Tower, with a construction area of 80,000 to 100,000 square meters. Set to become the city’s largest museum, it will include core spaces for artifact storage, restoration, research, and flexible exhibitions, along with facilities for education, incubation, commercial services, public leisure, and administration. The museum aims to showcase representative artifacts of Sino-Western cultural exchange, Macau’s cultural heritage, and significant historical relics of Chinese civilization.

Macau outlines cultural tourism district with three major landmark venues

The Macau International Performing Arts Center is initially designated for the western side of New Urban Zone Area C, with a planned construction area of 55,000 to 65,000 square meters. It will serve as an international, integrated performance platform and provide creation, collaboration, and training space for performing arts institutions and artists.

On the eastern side of Area C, the International Museum of Contemporary Art is planned with a construction area of 35,000 to 45,000 square meters, focusing on art collection, research, exhibitions, and education. It will also support talent development and international art exchange, offering contemporary art exhibitions, immersive experiences, and commercial services.

The concept proposal identifies five potential sites suitable for large cultural facilities, including parcels D11 and D12 in New Urban Zone Area A, part of the former Taipa Ocean World plot, the former Macau Jockey Club land, the coastal area east of Macau Tower, and New Urban Zone Area C.

Based on construction scale and land conditions, the China Tourism Academy—under the Ministry of Culture and Tourism’s Data Center—concluded that a two-site combination would likely be required, as no single parcel other than the former Jockey Club land can accommodate all three venues.

After a comprehensive assessment, the proposal recommends pairing the coastal area east of the Macau Tower with New Urban Zone Area C. The two locations face each other across the channel, enabling unified regional planning and visual connectivity that enhances the district’s cultural landscape. Both areas already benefit from strong tourism resources and high visitor traffic, allowing the new venues to complement existing leisure spaces.

The coastal site offers convenient transport links and potential for new bus routes that could ease traffic pressure around Area C. Both sites pose minimal disruption to residential communities and support a mature model of shared spaces for locals and tourists.

The proposal emphasizes that the two-site approach would create a cohesive cultural district along the Macau Peninsula waterfront, contributing to an enhanced skyline and a stronger environment for cultural development.

It is also worth noting that in April this year, Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai first revealed the idea of the International Integrated Tourism and Cultural District, with the project estimated to require an investment of MOP12 billion ($1.5 billion).

JCM also installed the advanced ICB system on approximately 900 devices on the casino floor. The combination of iVIZION and ICB provides unequalled levels of protection, compliance, and efficiency.

JCM’s iVIZION is the foundation of intelligent validation and is the solution that sees better, thinks smarter, and runs faster than any similar product, making it the most advanced bill validator on the market. iVIZION increases security with its Contact Image Sensor (CIS) technology that scans 75 times more data points than any bill validator in its class to capture the full image of both sides of a banknote or ticket. Its CIS and anti-stringing technologies defeat counterfeiters, all while maintaining the fastest and highest acceptance rate of any bill validator in its class.

JCM’s ICB Intelligent Cash Box system is proven to speed up the entire drop process while also eliminating human error, enhancing accuracy, and increasing compliance, for the ultimate boost in drop and cage performance, compliance, and efficiency.

JCM SVP – Sales, Marketing & Operations Dave Kubajak said, “We are truly grateful to the Golden Nugget Biloxi team for placing their enduring trust in JCM. JCM has proudly partnered with Golden Nugget Biloxi since the property opened, and we are excited to bring the advanced technologies of iVIZION and ICB to the property, boosting security, increasing efficiencies, and enhancing the guest experience.

This year, JCM Global celebrates 70 years of delivering industry‑leading innovations worldwide, with the Golden Nugget Biloxi Casino upgrade marking another successful US partnership in its series of casino floor enhancements.

“Brightstar has a successful history of supporting the Texas Lottery, and we are pleased that our contract was extended,” said Scott Gunn, Brightstar Chief Operating Officer, North America Lottery. “We look forward to continuing to work productively with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation.”

The contract extension is effective immediately and will remain in place through August 31, 2028.

Brightstar serves nearly 90 lottery customers and their players on six continents. It is the primary technology provider to 26 of the 46 lottery jurisdictions in the U.S. and eight of the world’s 10 largest lotteries, including the Texas Lottery.

Recently, the former IGT’s lottery division showcased its impressive portfolio of world-class lottery solutions at the 12^th EL Congress, presented by European Lotteries in Switzerland.

The closure comes as part of the company’s alignment with the Macau SAR Government’s policy to promote a “healthy and sustainable” gaming industry, with all satellite operations having until the end of 2025 to prepare for a new business model that will stop their existing profit-sharing mechanism.

SJM Resorts, the operator most impacted by this policy change, said it remains fully compliant with the amended 2022 Gaming Law and related regulations.

All gaming tables and machines currently operating at Casa Real will be redeployed to other SJM-operated casinos. Customers holding unredeemed chips, deposits or cash rebates will be able to claim them at other SJM properties starting November 22nd.

The company stressed that all local employees under its payroll will retain their jobs and be reassigned to other casinos within the group. Local workers at Casa Real not directly employed by SJM will be given priority consideration for vacancies and offered transitional support.

SJM Resorts said it would ensure all legal and operational procedures are followed to guarantee an orderly transition. The company reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Macau’s gaming sector and local community.

A total of 296 employees are expected to face a transition to SJM – one of the city’s six gaming concessionaires once boasting a wide portfolio of nine satellite casinos.

SJM has already promised to acquire the properties of Casino L’Arc Macau and Casino Ponte 16, and operate them directly from next year on.

Emperor Palace, Legend Palace, and Casino Grandview, previously dependent on SJM’s concession, have already ceased their operations.

Melco Resorts has already shuttered its Grand Dragon and slot machine parlor Mocha Kuong Fat, with both closed in late September, while Galaxy Entertainment Group’s sole satellite operation, Waldo Casino, halted its operations late October.

The government said the new law aims to reflect changes in economic activity, technology, and media since the current Advertising Activity Law (Law No. 7/89/M) came into effect in 1989. It also aligns with the administration’s policy agenda of improving the business environment and simplifying administrative procedures.

The bill was also said to have taken into consideration the results of a public consultation held from July 4th to August 2nd this year, for which the final report was released yesterday.

More than 90 percent of respondents supporting updates to the criteria for advertising specific goods and services, including lending, gambling, and tourism.

Clearer rules for gambling advertising

The proposed law confirms a ban on all forms of gambling advertising to mitigate potential social impacts, while also clarifying what does not fall under this definition.

Under Macau’s existing Legal Framework for Casino Gambling (Law No. 16/2001), concessionaires may only promote gaming-related activities within casino premises. The government said it does not intend to revise this rule but plans to make the prohibition of gambling advertising explicit in the new Advertising Law.

However, the draft provides for several exceptions. Advertising activities related to responsible gambling campaigns, addiction treatment, and the display of game rules will not be considered gambling advertising.

Likewise, business-to-business promotions, such as the marketing of gaming equipment at industry fairs or through official websites of licensed operators, will be permitted.

Some respondents to the bill public consultation suggested allowing limited advertising of gambling-related products or events after prior review by government authorities, provided that responsible gambling messages are displayed and the ads are not shown in residential areas.

‘Considering that legally authorized gambling operators include not only casino concessionaires but also other operators of gambling-related activities, these entities also need to promote their activities within the casinos they operate or on their official websites’, the government responded in the consultation report.

‘Furthermore, companies regularly organize fairs and conferences related to gaming equipment to promote such products. Therefore, it is suggested that the future legislative proposal include relevant exceptions to allow necessary commercial promotion in these cases,’ it was indicated.

As for opinions mentioning the appearance of gambling-related images or scenes in responsible gambling promotion and addiction counseling advertisements, or promotional activities for lottery or raffle sales conducted to promote products, these situations are not considered gambling advertising and will not be subject to regulation.

The government said the proposed law will improve the city’s advertising environment, strengthen consumer protection, and modernize sanctions by introducing new mechanisms for warnings, precautionary measures, and supplementary penalties.

The draft Advertising Law will now move to the Legislative Assembly for discussion and approval.

Good Morning. Satellites can’t stay in orbit forever. And Macau legacy gaming operator SJM is seeing the stark impact of what happens when they begin to be decommissioned. The group saw a stark 91 percent decline in profit for 3Q25, losing market share and seeing a drop in G GR, despite better results at the Grand Lisboa Palace. Looking to the Philippines, Solaire operator Bloomberry saw a significant increase in its loss for the past quarter, despite resilience from its latest property, Solaire North. Softness in VIP play and increased costs from the new online platform were, however, contrasted by strong local play during the period.

What you need to know

SJM posts sharp 91% profit drop in 3Q25, citing “inevitable” satellite phaseout and market share slide to 11.8%.
Bloomberry reports a $28.8M net loss in 3Q25, pressured by a decline in VIP revenue and new online platform costs.

On the radar

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Macau Grand Prix expected to attract 500,000 visitors over four days.
Galaxy could raise payout ratio to 69% on strong cash flow: CLSA.
Paradise Co. approves $87M collateral for Sega Sammy loan.
Macau’s neighboring city launches subsidy scheme to boost economy.
Thailand extradites alleged online gambling kingpin She Zhijiang to China.

AGB Intelligence

MACAU

SJM sees sharp 91% drop in profit in 3Q25

The end of an age indeed. And the consequences are becoming apparent. The shuttering of Macau’s satellite casinos was always going to largely affect legacy gaming operator SJM, given its proliferation of sub-licensed operators. But its third-quarter results showed the stark reality of the impact, with profit down 9 1 percent and the company facing “significant headwinds”. Despite this, the group’s Cotai flagship performed better, even as the company lost market share and GGR declined.

Industry Updates

Ludo Land enters the iGaming arena with innovative fast and slot games.
Evoplay debuts in US lottery market, expanding its North American presence.
QTech Games hires Joel Anyaegbu to drive West Africa business growth.

Corporate Spotlight

90-Day Playbook for Winning Asia’s Gaming Market | GR8 Tech

Every operator can launch, but few can lead. In Asia, leadership is won in the 90 days after go-live, when payments feel effortless, content resonates locally, and every touchpoint builds trust.

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Ivan Kravchuk, CEO at Evoplay, said: “Entering the US lottery-regulated market marks a defining moment for Evoplay. It’s a step we’ve prepared for carefully, and we’re excited to finally bring it to life. Launching Adrenaline Rush with the DC Lottery not only secures our foothold in the high-potential North American region but also creates a clear path for scalable growth. This move sets a strong foundation for our next stage of global expansion, as we continue building products that meet the highest standards and deliver real value to players and partners worldwide.”

As Evoplay continues to scale, this latest expansion is a clear indicator that more is on the horizon and that the company remains focused on delivering value to its partners and players through innovation, reliability, and a deep understanding of global gaming trends.

She, who had been detained in Thailand since 2022 following his arrest on a Chinese Interpol warrant, faces charges in China related to the operation of illegal online gambling networks. His extradition was confirmed after a Thai court upheld Beijing’s request earlier this week. The 42-year-old businessman was escorted by security officials from Bangkok to China on Wednesday.

The move coincides with an upcoming state visit by Thailand’s king to Beijing – the first by a reigning Thai monarch – signaling deepening diplomatic cooperation between the two countries.

She Zhijiang has been widely described as one of the most prominent figures linked to the rise of large-scale cyberscam and gambling operations in the region, particularly in areas along the Thai-Myanmar border. His best-known project, the Shwe Kokko New City development in Myanmar’s Karen State, has been cited by rights groups and foreign governments as a hub for online fraud, money laundering, and human trafficking.

Promoted as a luxury resort destination for Chinese investors and tourists, Shwe Kokko is instead alleged to have hosted large-scale scam operations. During a BBC visit earlier this year, locals reported that illicit activities were still ongoing despite international scrutiny. She’s company, Yatai International Holdings Group, has been sanctioned by both the United States and the United Kingdom for alleged involvement in human rights abuses linked to the operation of “scam compounds.”

Speaking from a Thai prison earlier this year, She denied direct involvement in criminal activity, saying his firm “would never accept telecom fraud or scams.” However, he admitted that “scammers may have entered” Shwe Kokko since the area was “completely open to anyone.”

Born in China’s Hunan province in 1982, She left school at 14 and later moved to the Philippines, where he entered the online gambling business in his early 20s. A Chinese court convicted him in 2014 for operating an illegal lottery, but he continued expanding his ventures across Cambodia, Myanmar, and other regional markets. He is also believed to hold both Cambodian and Myanmar citizenship, according to the US Treasury.

The United Nations estimates that hundreds of thousands of people – many of them Chinese nationals – are trapped in scam centers across Southeast Asia, often lured by fake job offers and later forced to conduct online fraud under threat of violence. Beijing has intensified its crackdown on such operations in recent months, with reports of severe sentences, including death penalties, for key organizers.

She’s extradition marks a significant victory for China’s efforts to dismantle transnational gambling and fraud networks that have flourished in neighboring countries amid weak local enforcement and complex jurisdictional boundaries.

Speaking of the overall results, President and Chief Executive Officer of AGI Kevin Tan noted that “What provided an added lift in Group earnings and margins is our ongoing cost management efforts, which we have implemented across the business. As we build a culture of cost awareness, we hope to further enhance our operating efficiencies moving forward.”

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to reach MOP246 billion ($30.7 billion) in 2025, according to analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei from Jefferies.

Events, new supply and incentives expected to drive growth

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Macau has released the concept proposal for its International Integrated Tourism and Cultural District, outlining plans to develop three major cultural venues across two strategic land parcels, one of the city’s most expansive cultural infrastructure initiatives to date.

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Golden Nugget Biloxi Casino, ranked among the Gulf Coast’s top destinations, has enhanced its floor operations with JCM Global’s award‑winning iVIZION and ICB Intelligent Cash Box systems.

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Brightstar Lottery announced that it has signed a two-year contract extension with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR), which administers the functions and activities of the Texas Lottery, for Brightstar to continue providing lottery technology and services in Texas.

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SJM Resorts announced that Casino Casa Real will permanently cease operations at 23:59 on November 21st, following coordination with Macau authorities and the venue’s service provider.

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A newly proposed revamp of Macau’s advertising regulations could allow some exceptions to the city’s stringent prohibition on gaming-related ads.

Clearer rules for gambling advertising

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What you need to know

On the radar

MACAU

Industry Updates

Corporate Spotlight

Table of Contents

Evoplay has taken a major step in its international growth journey, debuting in the US lottery market and expanding its footprint across North America.

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Thailand has extradited Chinese national She Zhijiang – accused of building one of Southeast Asia’s largest illicit online gambling and scam empires – to China, ending a two-year legal battle over his deportation.

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The operator of Newport World Resorts, in Manila, has announced that it achieved some PHP28.6 billion ($484.09 million) in gross revenue during the first nine months of the year, boosted by ‘increased foot traffic’ at the integrated resort.

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