Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to reach MOP246 billion ($30.7 billion) in 2025, according to analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei from Jefferies.
The projection is broadly in line with market expectations and exceeds the Macau government’s estimate of MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion) for the year.
In a research report published on Thursday, Jefferies said Macau’s gaming recovery continues to gain traction, supported by a stronger events calendar, new property openings, increased incentive programs for players, and the positive wealth effect generated by rising A-share, Hang Seng Index, and cryptocurrency markets. These factors are expected to ‘support GGR growth,’ particularly within the premium mass and VIP segments.
Jefferies highlighted that October GGR reached MOP24 billion ($3 billion), the highest monthly performance since Macau’s reopening, representing 15.9 percent year-on-year growth. Average daily revenue in early November also remained strong, driven by improving liquidity and rising visitor spending.
The report noted that stock market recovery, increased private-equity activity, and a revival in IPO pipelines have contributed to ‘wealth creation,’ further supporting gaming demand.
Based on stronger fourth-quarter momentum, the analysts raised their 4Q25 GGR forecast to MOP67.9 billion ($8.48 billion), up 13 percent year-on-year. This revision underpins the full-year projection of MOP246 billion, representing approximately 6 percent growth.
In addition, the brokerage maintained its GGR growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
Events, new supply and incentives expected to drive growth
The report points to a robust pipeline of concerts, shows, and sports events across major integrated resorts—including Galaxy Macau, The Venetian, and the Londoner Arena—as key drivers of incremental visitation and gaming revenue. Jefferies identified dozens of entertainment events scheduled between late 2025 and early 2026, many of which are already sold out, reflecting strong demand for premium leisure offerings.
New hotel and entertainment capacity—including openings under Galaxy Phase 4—is also set to enhance Macau’s overall appeal. Jefferies said these ‘new properties’ and large-scale facility upgrades will help operators attract higher-value customers during key travel periods.
The analysts also highlighted rising incentive programs, particularly within the premium mass and VIP tiers, as operators adjust their strategies to stay competitive amid a shift toward experience-driven gaming. These programs are expected to expand further in 2025.
