Macau’s gross gaming revenue is projected to rise 5 percent yearly to $32.3 billion in 2026, moderating from the 8.8 percent growth recorded in 2025, according to investment bank CLSA’s latest sector outlook released on Wednesday.
This forecast exceeds the Macau government’s projection, which estimates casino gross gaming revenue will reach MOP236 billion ($29.29 billion) in 2026—a 3.5 percent increase from the government’s revised full-year estimate for 2025.
CLSA attributes the anticipated growth to a ‘directionally stronger renminbi against the US dollar’ and a ‘currently positive indicator on industrial profitability in China.’ The projection implies an average daily GGR of MOP709 million ($88.4 million) next year, in line with the MOP705 million daily average recorded between July and October 2025.
Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan noted that the acceleration in GGR momentum since June 2025 reflects improving macroeconomic conditions. They highlighted that 72 percent of Macau’s visitors in the first nine months of 2025 came from mainland China. They also pointed to the spread between China’s Producer Price Index and Purchasing Price Index—an indicator of factory margins—which stood at a positive 0.82 percentage point in September, historically leading Macau’s GGR growth by about six months.
Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China were identified as CLSA’s top picks for 2026, supported by expected gains or stability in revenue market share, strong balance sheets, and the capacity to increase dividend payout ratios.
The sector is expected to generate $4.2 billion in recurring free cash flow to equity holders in 2026, roughly flat year-on-year, while distributing $2.9 billion in dividends, representing a 68.1 percent payout ratio. ‘Galaxy and MGM China still have the deepest pocket to raise dividend payout ratios for equity investors, as downside protection,’ the analysts wrote.
Market share dynamics will remain central in 2026, with CLSA raising its assumptions for Galaxy Entertainment from 20 percent to 20.5 percent and for Sands China from roughly 24 percent to 25 percent. The analysts expect these gains to come at the expense of SJM and Melco, while projecting steady shares for MGM China at around 16.0 percent and Wynn Macau at 12.5 percent.
The report also highlighted early signs of stabilization in Sands China’s market share after the company ‘stepped up its promotion efforts since summer 2025,’ noting that reviving absolute revenue and EBITDA growth remains its key priority. Looking ahead to 2027, CLSA forecasts further GGR growth of 5.2 percent to $34 billion.
Despite the positive sector outlook, broader consumer sentiment in China remains fragile. The consumer confidence and expectation index has shown only modest improvement, while property prices—considered a leading indicator of confidence—continue to decline year-over-year, though at a slowing pace.
The analysts cautioned that revenue growth is likely to moderate in 2026, particularly in the second half. Even so, ‘GGR market share, margins and dividends will remain key for equity investors.’ Premium gaming segments are expected to support growth in the first half of 2026, helped by a low comparison base from the prior year.
