Macau’s government has projected that the city’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP236 billion ($29.29 billion) in 2026, according to the newly released 2026 fiscal budget plan published on the Legislative Assembly website.
The document, which will be discussed and voted on November 25th, identifies the GGR forecast as the principal source of fiscal income for next year’s budget.
The projection represents a 3.5 percent increase from the government’s revised full-year GGR estimate for 2025, which was adjusted downward in June to MOP228 billion ($28.3 billion) after gaming revenue from November 2024 to April 2025 fell short of expectations. Officials said the 2026 forecast was determined ‘based on the consideration of the external environment and economic uncertainties’ and aligned with principles of fiscal prudence.
According to the budget plan’s justification note, Macau entered 2025 with steady economic momentum and rising visitor arrivals, although actual gaming revenue lagged initial projections early in the year. In response, the government revised its 2025 forecast through the June 2025 amendment law, lowering the estimate from MOP240 billion ($29.78 billion) to MOP228 billion ($28.3 billion) to reflect a more cautious public-financial outlook.
Authorities said tourism promotion efforts—including large-scale concerts, trade fairs, holiday campaigns, international IP events, and major festivals—helped accelerate the recovery through mid-2025. The city recorded more than MOP20 billion (over $2.48 billion) in monthly GGR for four consecutive months from May to August, signalling a stable upward trajectory for the tourism and gaming sectors.
The government said this positive momentum is expected to continue into 2026, supported by sustained tourist demand and strengthened “tourism+” integration measures aimed at diversifying Macau’s leisure economy.
While anticipating stronger results from integrated resorts, the fiscal document also acknowledged challenges in other parts of the local economy. Small and medium-sized enterprises in traditional sectors continue to face operating pressures despite the broader tourism-driven recovery. As a result, the 2026 budget will maintain a series of tax relief measures introduced in the 2025 fiscal year to support business transformation and upgrading.
For public revenue, the government expects to collect MOP92.53 billion ($11.48 billion) in gaming-related taxes in 2026. That includes MOP82.6 billion ($10.25 billion) from the 35-percent ‘special gaming tax’ levied on GGR, with additional contributions from other statutory charges bringing the effective rate to about 40 percent. Income from taxes on commissions paid by casinos to licensed junkets is projected at MOP150 million ($18.61 million).
