Citigroup has further reduced its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau in September 2025 to MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion) due to Super Typhoon Ragasa, marking the second downward revision this month as weather concerns compound earlier softness in casino performance.
The investment bank initially cut its September forecast to MOP19.5 billion ($2.4 billion) last week following weaker-than-expected daily run rates in early September. The latest reduction represents approximately 84 percent of September 2019 levels and 7 percent year-on-year growth, below the 12 percent growth recorded in August 2025.
The Macau government has warned it will order temporary casino closures if Super Typhoon Ragasa triggers a tropical cyclone warning signal of No. 8 or above. According to the latest update, the gaming regulator has instructed casino operators to allow employees and tourists to leave gaming floors two hours before the authorities issue the No. 8 signal. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that potential shutdowns coincide with an already challenging pre-October Golden Week slowdown, further dampening visitor demand.
According to industry sources cited by the weekly report, Macau’s GGR for the first 21 days of September reached approximately MOP13.45 billion ($1.7 billion), with daily run rates improving to MOP664 million ($82.4 million) during the week of September 15th–21st. This marked a 7 percent week-on-week increase and 16 percent higher than September 2024 averages.
The revised forecast implies GGR will average approximately MOP561 million ($69.6 million) per day for the remainder of September, factoring in expected disruptions from the typhoon and seasonal patterns.
HSBC maintains optimistic outlook despite weather concerns
While Citigroup has taken a more cautious stance, HSBC maintains a slightly more optimistic view for September, projecting GGR growth of 8–12 percent year-on-year despite the typhoon threat. HSBC estimates September full-month GGR in the range of MOP18.65–19.3 billion ($2.3–2.4 billion), assuming the rest of the month generates an average daily run rate of MOP580–650 million ($72–81 million).
The bank noted that last week’s run rate improved sequentially on better luck, with the month-to-date average daily run rate reaching MOP640 million ($79.5 million), about 10 percent below August levels but tracking in line with historical seasonality. VIP win rates improved to 3.3–3.7 percent from 3.0–3.3 percent the previous week.
HSBC also highlighted strong tourism momentum from August, with Macau’s overall visitation up 16 percent year-on-year, compared with 14 percent in July. Mainland Chinese arrivals outpaced the broader trend, rising 18 percent, led by a 29 percent surge in Guangdong visitors.
