Macau’s casino industry showed softer momentum in early September, prompting Citigroup to revise down its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for the month to MOP19.5 billion ($2.4 billion). The adjustment reflects weaker daily run rates during the first two weeks, despite year-on-year growth.
According to Citigroup, GGR for the first 14 days of September likely reached about MOP8.8 billion ($1.1 billion). This translates into an average daily run rate of MOP621 million ($77 million) between September 8th and 14th, around 2 percent lower than the first week of the month (MOP636 million per day, or $79 million), though still 8 percent above the September 2024 average (MOP575 million per day, or $72 million).
The bank noted that VIP volumes dropped between 10 and 14 percent month-on-month, while mass-market revenue fell 10 to 12 percent. VIP hold rates were broadly in line with the start of September but remained below August levels.
Citing these trends, Citigroup trimmed its September GGR estimate from MOP20.0 billion ($2.48 billion) to MOP19.5 billion, equivalent to about 88 percent of September 2019 levels but still a 13 percent year-on-year increase. To reach this projection, GGR would need to average roughly MOP669 million ($83 million) per day for the remainder of the month.
Run rate dipped on seasonality and luck
In a separate note, HSBC presented a similar assessment, estimating the daily run rate at MOP628 million ($78 million) for the first half of September. The figure marked a 12 percent decline from August, reflecting both seasonality and a lower VIP win rate, which ranged from 3.0 to 3.3 percent compared with 3.1 to 3.6 percent the previous month. HSBC said September typically posts a 3 to 15 percent sequential drop from August, making the current slowdown broadly consistent with historical patterns.
HSBC projected full-month September GGR between MOP18.4 billion ($2.28 billion) and MOP19.4 billion ($2.4 billion), representing 7 to 12 percent year-on-year growth, compared with 12 percent in August. The bank maintained its ‘Buy’ ratings on MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment, noting that non-gaming events should continue to support demand.
Golden Week bookings point to strong demand
HSBC also pointed to early signs of strong demand for the upcoming October Golden Week. As of September 11th, Macau ranked among the top 10 outbound destinations for Chinese travelers in terms of flight bookings, according to travel platform Tongcheng. Hotels under major operators including MGM, Galaxy, and Sands were already showing full bookings for the October 1st–8th holiday period.
The view from HSBC aligns with projections reported by AGB, which indicated that Macau could see record tourist arrivals during the Golden Week, supported by eased visa policies and rising travel appetite.
