Citigroup has maintained a positive outlook on Macau’s gaming sector, stating that softer trends observed in March are largely seasonal and do not signal any underlying weakness in demand, according to its latest proprietary table survey conducted in March 2026.
The bank noted that recent perceptions of a slowdown may be influenced by recency bias, as its previous survey was conducted during the Chinese New Year period, when activity is typically stronger.
Based on historical data, Citigroup emphasized that March has consistently been an ordinary month for gross gaming revenue (GGR) on a day-to-day basis. The latest data continue to point to solid year-on-year growth across several key metrics, supporting expectations for low-to-mid teens GGR growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau highlighted that the average wager per Premium Mass player rose 17 percent year-on-year to HK$20,689 ($2,643) in March, compared with HK$17,611 ($2,249) in the same period last year. Total wager observed reached HK$11.2 million ($1.43 million), largely flat year-on-year, while the number of Premium Mass players declined 16 percent to 543. The increase in per-player spending offset the lower player count, indicating resilient demand among higher-value customers.
In its ‘whale watch’ observations, Citigroup reported 25 whales during the month, up from 20 in March 2025. The ‘Player of the Month’ was identified at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon Room with wagering of HK$350,000 ($44,700). Additional high-value players were recorded at The Venetian Macao and Galaxy Macau’s Pavilion North, each wagering around HK$300,000 ($38,300).
The bank also noted that the apparent softness compared with the Chinese New Year period is consistent with historical patterns. Average Premium Mass wager per player in March was 30 percent lower than the HK$29,625 ($3,784) recorded during Chinese New Year 2026, broadly in line with declines of 33 percent in 2025 and 30 percent in 2024.
Similarly, the number of whales was 47 percent lower than during the holiday period, compared with declines of 59 percent and 51 percent in the prior two years. Citigroup reiterated that both metrics improved on a year-on-year basis.
Operator performance showed Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) regaining the top position in Premium Mass with a 32 percent market share, despite a decline from 36 percent a year earlier. Sands China ranked second with a 21 percent share, up from 18 percent last year.
Citigroup added that Sands China may present increasing investment interest following a recent share price pullback, noting that the market may be ‘overly pessimistic’ about the company’s prospects for EBITDA recovery.
Meanwhile, average mass baccarat minimum bets across Macau rose 3 percent year-on-year to HK$2,028 ($259), with Cotai increasing 6 percent to HK$2,192 ($280), while the peninsula saw a 7 percent decline to HK$1,540 ($197).
Other observations included ongoing renovations at MGM Cotai’s high-limit area, which temporarily reduced gaming capacity.
