Macau’s gaming industry is on course to generate gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP237 billion ($30 billion) in 2025, in line with market expectations but ahead of the government’s conservative estimate of MOP228 billion ($29 billion), analysts from brokerage Jefferies predict.
In a new sector outlook analysis, Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei point out that there is ‘momentum building’ on the back of strong summer entertainment offerings and improving performance by leading operators.
The first half of 2025 saw GGR rise 4.4 percent year-on-year to MOP119 billion ($14.8 billion), prompting Jefferies to trim its full-year GGR growth forecast slightly but still maintain a more bullish stance than official projections.
The brokerage now expects GGR to grow 4.5 percent this year to MOP237 billion ($30 billion), followed by slower but steady growth of 3.5 percent in 2026 to MOP245 billion ($31 billion) and 3.4 percent in 2027 to MOP254 billion ($32 billion).
The analysts highlighted diverging fortunes among Macau’s six concessionaires, with Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China projected to continue gaining market share at the expense of SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau. Sands China is expected to stabilize its performance and regain ground with a revised strategy.
‘Galaxy remains our top pick‘, the report noted, citing the company’s expanding scale and ramp-up of its Cotai properties. ‘We believe the operator is reaching an inflection point in terms of margin expansion.’
Jefferies expects the second quarter results season to begin in the second half of July, with Sands China likely to report first. For the three months to June, the analysts forecast stronger performance from Galaxy, MGM and Sands; while SJM and Wynn are seen facing further pressure.
Among the standout performers, MGM continues to outperform expectations in the premium segment, according to Jefferies. Sands China, meanwhile, is focusing on maximizing adjusted EBITDA.
The outlook for the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic. Early July data shows GGR up 9 percent year-on-year, buoyed by a string of Jacky Cheung concerts and a favorable win rate in VIP gaming.
Despite a sequential drop of 10 percent from the final two weeks of June, Jefferies analysts view this as a positive start to the traditionally softer third quarter.
Entertainment and tourism are expected to play a growing role in traffic generation. Following the success of Jacky Cheung’s concerts in late June and early July, Galaxy will host a new round of Eason Chan performances in August. The return of the popular House of Dancing Water show, which resumed in May, is also expected to bolster summer footfall.
Historically, the summer season tends to benefit large-scale resort operators as families and leisure travelers flock to Cotai’s integrated resorts.
‘While questions remain over the sustainability of VIP traffic and the strength of second-half demand, Jefferies maintains a positive outlook for Macau’s gaming recovery, particularly for operators with scale, diversified offerings, and strategic shifts in play’, the brokerage added.
