The Macau government has revised its 2025 budget, lowering the annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast from MOP240 billion ($30 billion) to MOP228 billion ($28.4 billion)—a 5 percent reduction—amid adjustments to reflect current economic conditions.
Secretary for Administration and Justice André Cheong announced that the Legislative Assembly will review the proposed budget modifications, which aim to ensure continued operation of public administration departments and support new policy initiatives introduced by the current government.
The downward adjustment in GGR projections follows an assessment of prevailing economic conditions and actual industry performance since the beginning of the year.
As reported by AGB, gaming taxes accounted for 87.7 percent of Macau’s government revenue during the first four months of 2025.
Under the revised framework, total comprehensive budget revenue will be adjusted to MOP116.53 billion ($14.5 billion), with total expenditure set at MOP116.24 billion ($14.5 billion). The government’s Investment and Development Expenditure Plan has been reduced to MOP19.59 billion ($2.4 billion).
The revised budget will require Legislative Assembly approval before implementation, as Macau seeks to balance fiscal prudence with long-term economic development amid a shifting regional gaming landscape.
Commenting on the budget update, an investment bank analyst told AGB the GGR revision was “unsurprising,” noting that gross gaming revenue has grown just 1.7 percent year-on-year so far. The analyst added that the adjustment is likely a “non-event” for the market.
Meanwhile, research from Seaport projects Macau’s gaming revenue will grow 4 percent in 2025, with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year—6.1 percent versus 2 percent in the first half. Analysts attribute this to increased marketing efforts by casino operators and improving consumer trends in mainland China.
‘Growth should be driven by increased marketing efforts by operators and improving consumer trends in China,’ Seaport noted in its recent report. Analyst Vitaly Umansky also pointed to ongoing stimulus measures and policy support from Beijing as factors likely to boost consumer confidence and economic recovery.
For the longer term, Seaport forecasts approximately 7 percent annual gaming revenue growth for 2026–2027, contingent on China’s economic performance and a rebound in consumer sentiment.
Despite concerns over gaming revenue growth and geopolitical uncertainty, Seaport notes that valuations for Macau gaming stocks remain relatively low. This, they suggest, presents continued risk-reward opportunities for investors, although stock performance has lagged over the past year despite improving operational metrics in Macau.
