The Macau government has submitted its 2025 Fiscal Year Budget Proposal to the Legislative Assembly, forecasting a continued recovery in the gaming and tourism sectors. Officials expect an increase in visitor arrivals next year, although travel and spending patterns may shift.
Based on an analysis of various factors, the government estimates that gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP240 billion ($29.7 billion) in 2025. This projection serves as the primary revenue basis for drafting the fiscal budget for the upcoming year.
The proposal outlines that Macau’s general consolidated budget for 2025 anticipates revenue of MOP121.09 billion ($15 billion) and expenditures of MOP113.38 billion ($14.1 billion), resulting in a projected budget surplus of MOP7.7 billion ($954 million).
In the first ten months of 2024, Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP190.1 billion ($23.7 billion), reflecting a 28.1 percent year-on-year increase. However, this figure remains 23 percent lower than the same period in 2019, when GGR amounted to MOP 246.9 billion ($30.8 billion).
For context, in the entire year of 2023, Macau’s casino GGR amounted to MOP183.05 billion ($22.68 billion), reflecting a 333.8 percent surge compared to the previous year. This significant growth marked a strong rebound for Macau as the city emerged from the shadow of the pandemic and the strict regulations that effectively shut it down for three years.
Brokerage forecast
In mid-October, Bank of America revised its GGR projections for Macau, adjusting estimates for both 2024 and 2025 due to better-than-expected performance.
The bank raised its 2024 GGR forecast by 2 percent, bringing it to MOP227 billion ($28.1 billion), representing a 24 percent year-on-year increase and 78 percent of 2019 levels. This upward adjustment reflects stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter results and a robust Golden Week performance.
For 2025, Bank of America increased its GGR estimate by 7 percent, setting it at MOP230 billion ($28.5 billion), reflecting 2 percent year-on-year growth. This projection takes into account underlying growth of 4 to 5 percent, while also considering the potential impact of ongoing crackdowns on illegal currency exchange activities expected in the first half of 2025.
However, Bank of America’s projection remains below the Macau government’s forecast.
Additionally, the bank has revised its sector EBITDA estimates, raising projections by 2 percent for 2024 and 10 percent for 2025, demonstrating continued confidence in Macau’s recovery trajectory.
