Fitch Ratings said the impact on SJM Holdings‘ credit profile will depend on the company’s ability to recapture the market share of its outgoing satellite casinos and the terms of related acquisitions.
The agency’s base case assumes SJM will retain around two-thirds of the departing satellite casinos’ market share, with gaming tables reallocated to its peninsula properties, where proximity and similar positioning are expected to drive stronger margins.
Fitch added that the reallocation should support ‘EBITDA accretion’ as the tables generate higher profitability than under the satellite model.
The assessment comes as SJM proceeds with a restructuring of its satellite casino operations, set to conclude by the end of 2025. The company plans to reallocate approximately 458 gaming tables and more than 4,000 staff from closing satellite venues to its self-owned properties. To accommodate the additional capacity, SJM is acquiring further gaming floor space at Casino Lisboa from parent company Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau. It also intends to purchase the premises of Casino L’Arc Macau and Casino Ponte 16 to continue operating them as self-owned casinos with new table allocations.
So far, SJM has not provided any updates regarding the purchase of Casino L’Arc Macau and Casino Ponte 16 since the decision was first announced in June.
Credit outlook turns negative
While the restructuring is designed to consolidate operations and strengthen margins, Fitch noted uncertainty remains over SJM’s broader financial trajectory. On September 12th, Fitch revised SJM’s outlook to Negative from Stable, citing delays in deleveraging and weaker-than-expected operating results at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP). The firm affirmed SJM’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘BB-,’ along with its senior unsecured ratings and outstanding notes.
Fitch said the Negative Outlook reflects ‘heightened uncertainty’ surrounding SJM’s deleveraging efforts, with EBITDA leverage projected to rise above 8x in 2025, compared with 7.0x in 2024. The agency expects leverage to gradually fall below 5x by 2027, but warned that any further operational weakness could trigger a downgrade.
The rating revision followed a disappointing 2Q25 for SJM, in which GLP recorded a 1 percent quarter-on-quarter revenue increase and an EBITDA margin of only 3 percent, both below expectations. Fitch highlighted that the performance contrasted with industry-wide gross gaming revenue growth of 8 percent year-on-year, underscoring SJM’s loss of market share to competitors with newer properties and more aggressive promotions. Rising marketing expenses also pressured margins.
Despite these challenges, Fitch expects the reallocation of gaming tables to peninsula properties to provide a financial buffer. The agency views these properties as better positioned to absorb former satellite patrons and believes the shift will support profitability over time. Still, it cautioned that ‘uncertainty remains’ over the ramp-up of GLP and the impact of the satellite restructuring on SJM’s long-term balance sheet.
SJM faces additional refinancing tasks ahead. The company has a $500 million bond maturing in January 2026, along with HKD1.25 billion ($160 million) and MOP300 million ($37.3 million) in bonds due in May 2026. Fitch anticipates SJM will secure new bank loans to cover the January maturity and draw on its HKD3.1 billion ($397 million) undrawn revolver for the remainder.
The operator’s concentration in Macau’s highly competitive market, coupled with its relatively weaker portfolio compared with peers such as Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts, continues to weigh on its business profile. Fitch projects SJM’s total market share will fall to 10.6 percent in 2026 from 12.7 percent in 2024, with only a modest recovery by 2027.
