Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to rise 6 percent year-on-year to MOP263.5 billion ($33.3 billion) in 2026, supported by an expanded concert calendar, increased hotel suite supply, and continued strength in premium-player spending, according to a new outlook from Citigroup.Â
The bank also projects industry-wide EBITDA to climb 10 percent, with margins holding at around 29 percent.
In its latest report on Macau gaming, Citigroup said the city remains the top leisure destination for affluent Mainland Chinese visitors seeking a ‘total experience,’ a trend reinforced by rising demand for entertainment-led tourism. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau identified Sands China and Wynn Macau as the operators best positioned to capture market-share gains in 2026.
Citigroup expects visitation and premium players’ per-capita spending to continue rising, driven by easier access to suites and the growing popularity of live entertainment. Concert-related travel and hotel-casino integration are projected to lift non-gaming revenue while supporting higher gaming yield, particularly in mass and premium-mass segments.
Minor GGR softness expected during the FIFA World Cup period
Despite the positive full-year outlook, the report forecasts temporary softness during the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July. Historical patterns suggest that major football tournaments divert betting interest away from Macau.Â
With 88 matches scheduled for the group stage—more than double the UEFA Euro 2024 total—Citigroup estimates Macau may generate only MOP19 billion ($2.37 billion) in GGR during June, a 10 percent year-on-year decline, and MOP21 billion ($2.62 billion) in July, a 5 percent drop.
The bank expects GGR growth to normalise once the tournament concludes.
Market share shifts within the “Cotai Triangle.
Citigroup also forecasts notable market-share rotation within Cotai. Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are expected to maintain leading GGR and EBITDA positions in 2026, supported by their ability to host large-scale entertainment events. The Londoner Arena, Venetian Arena, and other venues are considered structural advantages as concerts grow increasingly integral to demand generation.
The analysts also anticipate competitive adjustments as new supply enters the market. Wynn Palace is expected to benefit from the opening of Chairman’s Club in the first quarter of 2026, while MGM China will expand its suite inventory in the second half of 2026 with 60 new suites. Melco Resorts’ City of Dreams will add the Countdown Hotel renovation (scheduled for the third quarter of 2026), intensifying premium-segment competition.
