Analysts at Citigroup are bullish on Macau in 2024, seeing room for growth after a 'decent 2023'. Analyst George Choi cites a weak economy in China diminishing Macau's possible ramp-up this year, but notes that visitation, time and money spent in the casino are more important metrics than a country's GDP. The analyst also encourages operators in their comping strategies, noting that EBITDA is the bottom line.
Investment bank Citigroup notes that there is still ‘plenty of room for top-line gaming revenue growth’ for 2024 in Macau, as its research team indicates that the sector's current valuations imply over-pessimistic opex inflation.
Macau is projected to conclude 2023 with gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP182 billion ($22.6 billion), approximately 62 percent of 2019 levels, according to Citigroup.
Popular concerts held in Macau continue to boost the city's gaming revenue, as Citigroup's Table Survey indicates. The survey shows that the average wager per player in the premium mass segment increased by 37 percent compared to November 2019, reaching HK$22,251 ($2,856).
The average wager per player at Macau premium mass rooms during the National Day Golden Week increased by 94 percent compared to the same period in 2019, according to the latest Table Survey conducted by Citigroup.
The ‘unprecedented lineup of events’ is expected to be the main driver of Macau’s gross gaming revenue in 4Q23, as Citigroup raises the quarter’s GGR forecast by 7.4 percent quarterly, from MOP51 billion ($6.3 billion) to MOP52.5 billion ($6.5 billion).
Citigroup reaffirms that Macau's gaming industry shows no signs of slowing down. Despite the decline in total wagers in the premium mass market, average wagers remain strong and unaffected by seasonality.
Citigroup reports that it has observed 24 whales so far this month, marking the highest single-month tally this year and only three fewer than during Chinese New Year in 2
Citigroup noted that MGM's management is 'showing confidence in the market', MGM China's President and Chief Operating Officer Hubert Wang revealed that the company will double the headcount of its international sales and marketing team
Macau’s mass market gross gaming revenue recovered to 93 percent of pre-COVID levels in July 2023, reaffirming the bullish outlook over Macau gaming, say analysts.