After Macau’s gross gaming revenue hit the second-highest daily run-rate since reopening in January, investment bank Citigroup raises the 2024 GGR forecast by 7 percent, to $29 billion.
According to an investment memo on Thursday, Citigroup notes that Macau’s January GGR reached MOP19.3 billion ($2.4 billion), indicating that the ‘usual pre-Chinese New Year slowdown has yet to happen.’
Analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung believe that the strength is attributable to the K-pop concerts held at Galaxy Arena last week (January 26th to 28th). More importantly, this data show that mainland Chinese visitors are ‘still able and willing to spend in Macau.’
January’s GGR marks the second-highest daily GGR run rate, marginally below that of October last year at MOP629 million ($78.2 million) per day. In this context, Citigroup raises the 2024 GGR forecast by 7 percent from MOP216.5 billion ($26.9 billion) to MOP231.3 billion ($29 billion).
The adjustment suggests that Macau in 2024 may increase by 26 percent yearly; as per the previous forecast, Citigroup anticipates 18 percent GGR growth.
February GGR at 77 percent of 2019
Citigroup also raises the February GGR forecast from MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion) to MOP19.5 billion ($2.4 billion). This indicates that Macau’s February GGR may reach 77 percent of the 2019 level.
In the detailed forecast, analysts anticipate GGR to moderate to MOP567 million ($70.5 million) per day, about 10 percent lower than January data, as it is the usual slowdown before the holiday. Then GGR could re-accelerate to about MOP900 million ($111.8 million) per day from February 12th to 17th.
In another investment memo, analysts from Morgan Stanley expect February GGR to be up 4 percent month-over-month at MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion), implying MOP691 million ($85.9 million) per day (29 days in February 2024 vs. 28 days in February 2019).
‘February will be helped by CNY holidays and concerts. Historically (2016-19), CNY helps Feb to have an average of 5 percent month-over-month growth over January.’
‘Assuming Mass GGR is at 88 percent of GGR for January 2024 (the same as 4Q23), this implies Mass GGR recovery of 115-120 percent of the 2019 level.’
