Following the release of Macau’s gross gaming revenue results for April, analysts are now weighing their expectations for May and the rest of the year.
Macau’s GGR tally for April was MOP18.86 billion ($2.35 billion), down by 4.1 percent monthly but up by 1.7 percent yearly.
Vitaly Umansky, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners, indicates that the new estimates for May GGR ‘may be conservative’, if there is a ‘stronger’ Golden Week. The analyst places May GGR down 1.7 percent yearly and up by 5.2 percent monthly.
This ‘better than expected April result’, coupled with the possibilities for Golden Week contributed to the estimate.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank were slightly less conservative in their estimates for May, with GGR expected to contract by 0.3 percent yearly, to $2.52 billion. They indicated that based on historical data, the figure could fall by up to 1 percent yearly in May.
Looking ahead, analyst Carlo Santarelli notes that 2Q25 GGR forecasts are for a 1.1 percent yearly increase to $7.14 billion, with FY25 expected to also be up by 1.1 percent, to $28.69 billion. FY26 results could increase by 3.5 percent yearly, to $29.69 billion.
Seaports analysis places Macau’s 2025 GGR growth forecast at 3.4 percent, ‘with higher growth in the second half of the year […] driven by increase in marketing efforts by operators and consumer trends in China’.
The group furthers that ‘China stimulus and policy measures are likely to help China’s economy and improve consumer confidence later this year.
Umansky notes that ‘Macau’s premium segment has been strong following recovery from COVID that began in early 2023,’ but cautions that ‘the base mass segment has been stubbornly weaker than anticipated’.
Data from the group indicate that mass GGR is running at about 112 percent of 2019 levels, while VIP is down 26 percent.
‘Within mass, premium is ~45 percent above 2019, while base mass continues to lag, nearly 20 percent below 2019. And, importantly, within base mass, while day-tripper business from HK and Guangdong is likely back to near pre-COVID levels, overnight base mass (destination base mass) has been weak, likely well below 70 percent of pre-Covid levels’.
Looking ahead to 2026/2027, Seaport indicates that expectations are for 7 percent GGR growth ‘but this could be higher on a stronger Chinese economy, materially improved consumer sentiment and any appreciation of the RMB’.
However, the group is expecting a market share shift, with giants Sands and Galaxy gaining share, while MGM and Wynn ‘are likely to be the largest share donors over the next two years’.
