CreditSights remains ‘constructive’ on Sands China’s operational outlook in 2026, citing expectations that the operator’s customer reinvestment initiatives will continue to lift market share, supporting revenue and EBITDA growth despite ongoing margin pressures in Macau.
The assessment follows a review of Sands China’s 4Q25 performance and management guidance, with analysts maintaining a ‘market perform’ view on the company’s US dollar bonds.
CreditSights is a financial research unit within the Fitch Group.
In a research note published on Friday, CreditSights said Sands China’s reinvestment program, implemented in April 2025, has begun to deliver market share gains. The brokerage estimates Sands China’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) market share rose to about 23.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from roughly 22.8 percent a year earlier.
Analysts expect this momentum to carry into 2026, helping to drive a mid-single-digit year-on-year increase in topline revenue, assuming modest growth in Macau’s overall gaming market.
’We remain constructive on Sands China’s operational outlook in 2026 as its customer reinvestment initiatives are expected to continue improving its market share, which should drive revenue and EBITDA growth,’ CreditSights indicated in the report.
The positive outlook on volumes comes despite weaker margins in late 2025. Sands China reported a 16 percent year-on-year increase in total net revenues in 4Q25, while adjusted property EBITDA rose 6 percent, largely driven by continued recovery at The Londoner Macao following the completion of its renovation earlier in the year.
However, EBITDA margins declined to 29.5 percent, reflecting higher operating expenses and an unfavorable shift in customer and segment mix toward lower-margin premium mass and VIP play.
For 2026, CreditSights expects these margin headwinds to persist. While revenue is forecast to grow at a mid-single-digit pace, EBITDA growth is projected to be limited to low single digits as margins trend slightly lower. Analysts pointed to continued growth in premium mass and VIP segments, along with a competitive promotional environment, as factors likely to constrain profitability.
Management has indicated that promotional intensity is stabilizing, but CreditSights noted that Sands China may still need to accelerate offers to defend and expand its customer base, particularly in the premium segment that has been driving Macau’s overall GGR growth. The brokerage added that management appears more focused on absolute EBITDA generation than on near-term margin expansion.
From a balance sheet perspective, CreditSights noted modest improvements in leverage metrics during 4Q25 and expects incremental EBITDA gains and lower capital expenditure guidance to support further, albeit marginal, improvement in 2026. Sands China has no US dollar bond maturities due this year, with its next maturity in 2027, which CreditSights views as supportive of its credit profile.
