The recent surge in global oil prices and resulting flight cancellations are unlikely to materially affect Macau’s gaming sector, with industry observers pointing to the city’s heavy reliance on land-based visitors and resilient premium demand.
Speaking to AGB, Billy Song, president of the Macau Responsible Gaming Association, said the disruption has so far been concentrated in outbound travel and specific regional routes, with limited implications for inbound gaming demand.
“Most visitors to Macau enter via land or sea rather than by air, so the overall impact should not be significant,” he said. “Even for long-haul travelers, many combine Hong Kong and Macau in one trip, so they are unlikely to be affected by flight cancellations involving Macau’s airport.”
Song noted that while some Southeast Asian routes have been disrupted, inbound arrivals to Macau have yet to show any meaningful decline. He added that affected travelers may reroute through nearby hubs such as Hong Kong or Zhuhai, mitigating the impact on overall visitation. International visitors may face greater inconvenience due to their reliance on air travel, but the effect is expected to remain contained.
Limited reliance on air arrivals cushions impact
Recent adjustments by Air Macau have brought the issue to light. The airline confirmed it has canceled more than 400 round-trip flights between May and June due to soaring jet fuel costs, with oil prices rising from around $97 per barrel to over $200.
The affected routes include several mainland Chinese cities as well as regional destinations such as Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Despite these changes, the airline has arranged rebooking options and partnerships with other carriers to minimize disruption.
Air Macau, the city’s flagship carrier, operates the majority of routes linking major mainland Chinese cities with key destinations across Asia.
Premium segment shields gaming from cost pressures
Academic Macao Polytechnic University researcher Zeng Zhonglu holds a similar view, noting that the lack of detailed data makes it difficult to quantify the impact. He said any effects are more likely to be felt among visitors traveling by air from major mainland cities such as Beijing or Shanghai. However, he added that the overall impact on Macau’s gaming sector should remain limited, given the relatively small share of inbound visitors arriving by air.
Meanwhile, he said the broader impact of higher oil prices on consumer spending is also unlikely to significantly affect Macau’s gaming revenues. He argued that the city’s focus on premium and high-end players provides a degree of insulation from macroeconomic pressures.
“Higher-income visitors are generally less sensitive to cost fluctuations such as fuel prices, so their gaming and travel decisions are not easily affected,” Zeng said. “The segment that feels the pressure more is the mid- to lower-income group, but that segment has already been relatively weaker in terms of recovery.”
Zeng pointed to evolving visitor patterns as a more important factor shaping Macau’s gaming performance. While total arrivals rebounded strongly in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, overall gaming revenue has lagged behind. This divergence, he said, is largely due to a rise in short-haul, non-overnight visitors, particularly from neighboring Zhuhai.
“Visitor numbers have increased, but many are same-day travelers who do not stay overnight,” he said. “As a result, per capita spending, including gaming expenditure, has declined compared with before the pandemic.”
This structural shift suggests that fluctuations in oil prices, while relevant to travel costs, are not the primary driver of Macau’s gaming demand. Instead, visitor mix and length of stay remain key determinants of spending levels.
Travel uncertainty may redirect demand to Macau
Looking ahead to the upcoming Labor Day “Golden Week” holiday, which runs from May 1st to May 5th, both experts expect stable to positive performance, with potential upside linked to current travel dynamics. Song said flight disruptions and higher international travel costs could redirect demand toward closer destinations.
“With uncertainties abroad and higher travel costs, some mainland tourists may opt for short-haul trips instead of traveling overseas,” he said. “That could benefit Macau, as visitors choose destinations within the Greater Bay Area.”
Zeng shared a similar outlook, noting that the overall trend of strong visitor volumes but relatively cautious spending is likely to continue. He added that premium segments are expected to remain more resilient, while mass-market recovery may take longer.
