Genting Singapore’s weaker-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 has prompted a cut in earnings forecasts by 13-14 percent, with Maybank citing disappointing operating trends and the failure of The Laurus Hotel reopening to deliver an expected boost.
According to a research note by analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang, the company’s latest results ‘underwhelmed,’ leading to revised projections and a downgrade in outlook.
In a report published on February 25th, the analyst said he had cut Genting Singapore’s FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates by 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively, while introducing ‘flattish FY28E earnings,’ implying zero year-on-year growth in 2028.
The revisions were driven by weaker-than-expected VIP volume and mass market gaming revenue, as well as limited signs of near-term recovery.
‘We expected 4Q25 to be better,’ the report said, noting that the reopening of The Laurus Hotel ‘did not materialize’ into stronger results. The 183-suite luxury property, which was expected to attract more high-end and premium mass customers from October 2025, only fully opened shortly before the report was issued and had yet to contribute meaningfully to performance.
As a result, Maybank downgraded Genting Singapore to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy.’
Financially, Genting Singapore reported core net profit of SG$61.5 million ($48.8 million) in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing full-year core earnings to SG$423.3 million ($336.7 million). This represented about 85 percent of Maybank’s original full-year estimate. The shortfall was mainly attributed to lower VIP turnover, which declined about 15 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, and intensified competition from Marina Bay Sands.
Singapore’s casino sector operates as a duopoly between Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands.
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell nearly 25 percent year-on-year and 24 percent quarter-on-quarter, partly due to lower VIP win rates and higher provisions for doubtful debts. For the full year, EBITDA declined 15 percent, while mass market gross gaming revenue eased 3 percent to around SG$1.5 billion ($1.19 billion).
Market sentiment was further dampened by the company’s silence regarding its ‘huge net cash pile’. Despite holding around SG$3.2 billion ($2.54 billion) in cash, Genting Singapore did not hint at a special dividend, even as its immediate holding company faces a $1.5 billion debt repayment in early 2027. While the final dividend of SG$0.02 per share was ‘within our expectations’, the lack of a special payout and continued loss of market share led the analyst to conclude that any future upside would need to be derived from ‘market share recovery’.
