The recovery of the Philippine tourism industry is expected to play a pivotal role in driving the country’s casino sector, particularly benefiting brick-and-mortar operators, according to a report by Unicapital Securities Inc.
According to the Inquirer, in its midyear outlook, the Philippines-based full-service securities brokerage firm identified tourism as ‘a key area to watch,’ noting that the sector’s growth trajectory is ‘moving in the right direction.’ The firm stressed that stronger tourist inflows could reinvigorate gross gaming revenues (GGR) across all casino segments while supporting growth in operators’ ancillary businesses, including hospitality services.
The Philippines welcomed 5.9 million foreign arrivals in 2024, falling short of the ambitious 7.7 million target but still marking a significant rebound from pandemic lows. The Department of Tourism (DOT) reported that 2,905,363 international tourists arrived in the first six months of this year, prompting officials to recalibrate year-end projections amid global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions affecting travel patterns.
South Korea and the United States remain the country’s top source markets, while Chinese arrivals have declined sharply due to the continued suspension of e-visa issuance for Chinese nationals. DOT Secretary Christina Garcia-Frasco acknowledged this challenge, noting that China was one of the Philippines’ primary source markets before the pandemic.
To offset the decline in traditional markets, the DOT has rolled out visa-free entry for Indian and Taiwanese travelers, with direct Delhi–Manila flights expected to launch later this year. This initiative forms part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on conventional source markets and attract visitors from emerging economies.
Unicapital emphasized that sustained recovery requires the Philippines to ‘go beyond recovery and focus on reinvention — a sharper brand, tourist-friendly policies, and seamless travel experiences.’
Casino sector reflects tourism trends
The gaming industry’s performance has closely mirrored tourism patterns, as illustrated by Bloomberry Resorts Corp.’s operations. According to Unicapital, Bloomberry‘s VIP segment at Solaire Entertainment City has come under pressure from junket closures and stricter Chinese visa policies following the exodus of Philippine offshore gaming operators. VIP gaming’s contribution to Bloomberry’s GGR fell from 40 percent in 1Q23 to 29 percent in 1Q24, and further to 19 percent in 1Q25.
By contrast, the mass-market segment at Solaire North in Quezon City has continued to gain momentum. Unicapital suggests that with a gradual recovery in foreign tourist arrivals, the VIP segment’s rebound may be ‘on the horizon.’
Tourism GDP contribution still below pre-COVID levels
Tourism accounted for 8.9 percent of the Philippines’ gross domestic product in 2024, generating PHP2.4 trillion ($43.6 billion) for the economy — an 11 percent year-on-year increase. Despite the growth, the figure remains below the pre-pandemic peak of PHP2.5 trillion ($45.4 billion) in 2020.
Unicapital attributed the gap mainly to the accommodation sector’s ongoing underperformance, weighed down by the sluggish recovery in international tourist arrivals.
The firm noted that visa facilitation in the Philippines remains less competitive compared to regional peers, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam offering more flexible and technology-enabled systems. According to World Economic Forum data, the Philippines also scored lowest among regional neighbors in tourist services and infrastructure.
Even so, Unicapital sees ‘massive headroom’ for growth. ‘With investments and support from both the public and private sectors, Philippine tourism holds the potential to regain — and even surpass — its former glory,’ the brokerage concluded.
