Maybank Securities has significantly revised down its estimates for the performance of Bloomberry Resorts, citing ‘challenges’ at its Solaire casino in Entertainment City, elevated opex linked to its e-gaming launch and ‘higher-than-expected’ depreciation.
In a Wednesday note, analyst Raffy Mendoza noted that the current estimates are for core net losses of PHP3.1 billion ($52.33 million) for FY25 and PHP1 billion ($16.88 million) for this year.
This is a strong turnaround from the PHP2.9 billion ($48.95 million) net income it had previously predicted for 2025 and PHP4.8 billion ($81.02 million) for 2026.
The revision is in part due to a 50 percent drop in VIP gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Bloomberry’s Solaire Entertainment City property in the first nine months of 2025 – to PHP5.8 billion ($97.9 million) with ‘fewer fly-in VIP punters’. For the nine-month period, the group saw just PHP164 million ($2.77 million) in net income, down 95.3 percent yearly, despite gross gaming revenues rising by 0.4 percent to PHP45.68 billion ($771.04 million).
The group notes that the revenue uptick was ‘mainly from the initial contribution of Solaire Resort North, which added PHP13.8 billion ($232.93 million) in 9M25’. During the period Solaire Entertainment City saw GGR fall by 22 percent yearly to PHP31.9 billion ($538.44 million), with EGM revenue down by 14 percent yearly to PHP13.4 billion ($226.18 million) and mass tables revenue down by 5 percent to PHP12.7 billion ($214.36 million).
Combined GGR across casinos in Entertainment City dropped by 15 percent yearly to PHP99.4 billion ($1.67 billion) in the nine-month period, highlights the analyst.
The lower results from Solaire EC caused Maybank to slash its stock target price by 44 percent to PHP2.80, despite maintaining its Hold rating.
Overall Bloomberry revenue for 2025 is expected to have hit PHP51.63 billion ($871.47 million), down 2 percent yearly, with expectations for a slight 8 percent lift this year to PHP55.76 billion ($941.18 million).
For Solaire EC, GGR likely declined 23 percent yearly to PHP41 billion ($692 million) but could grow by 4 percent yearly to PHP42.7 billion ($720.72 million) this year.
Maybank notes that Solaire ‘remains the market leader in Entertainment City’, with market share in 3Q25 at 32 percent (compared to 35 percent in 3Q24).
For Solaire Resort North, Maybank predicts FY25 yearly GGR growth of 122 percent to PHP18.7 billion ($315.64 million), with a 20 percent yearly increase this year to PHP22.4 billion ($378.1 million) due to an anticipated ramp up of operations.
Potential upside
Starting from January 16th of this year, Chinese nationals visiting the Philippines for tourism and business are allowed visa-free entry for 14 days, a move Maybank views as ‘a positive development for land-based casino operators in Entertainment City’, such as Bloomberry. However, the group expects ‘any meaningful recovery in gaming activity to take several quarters’. The Maybank analyst notes that in the first three quarters of 2025, roughly 30 percent of Solaire GGR came from Greater China.
In a base case scenario, the analyst highlights that VIP GGR for this year would hit PHP7.39 billion ($124.74 million), based on a 7 percent increase in VIP drop volume. A 10 percent increase in VIP drop volume in 2027 could lead to VIP GGR of PHP9.09 billion ($153.43 million).
In a bull case scenario, there could be a 30 percent rise in VIP drop volume this year, leading to PHP11.05 billion ($186.51 million) in VIP GGR, with a 30 percent rise the following year in drop, with VIP GGR hitting nearly PHP14.85 billion ($250.65 million).
In the base case, the share target price would be PHP2.60, while in the bull case this rises to PHP3.50.
‘Should a quicker impact be felt from the visa waiver, this may lead to 50 percent higher VIP GGR this year,’ highlights Mendoza.
Other factors to keep an eye on are the ramp-up of Bloomberry’s e-gaming platform (which isn’t factored into forecasts) and Solaire Resort North this year, the ongoing sale of its Jeju Island property, and increased competition in Entertainment City due to the opening of Westside City casino, expected in 3Q26.
