Macau gaming stocks have surged 53 percent from their April lows, significantly outperforming the broader Hong Kong market, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
The rally has been driven by a rebound in gross gaming revenue (GGR), supported by special events, increased tourism, and improved transportation access.
According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), Macau welcomed 19.22 million visitors in the first six months of 2025—a robust 14.9 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
The Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau gaming shares has outpaced the Hang Seng Composite Index, which gained 30 percent over the same period. Monthly gaming revenue in Macau has exceeded analyst expectations for three consecutive months.
The acceleration of the rebound was first observed in May, when Galaxy Entertainment Chairman Francis Lui reported double-digit growth during the May Day holiday. This double-digit growth far exceeded the low single-digit growth projected by several investment banks. In June, Macau’s GGR reached MOP21.06 billion ($2.6 billion), marking a surprising 19 percent year-on-year increase. Analysts noted that the market outperformed seasonal expectations, which typically dip before the summer holidays.
The trend appears likely to continue. Last week, Seaport Research Partners revised its 2025 GGR forecast for Macau upward, now projecting 7 percent year-on-year growth. The firm cited stronger-than-expected performance in the second quarter and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, where growth could reach as high as 9 percent.
The revised projections reflect growing investor confidence in Macau’s long-term recovery, despite broader concerns about China’s macroeconomic outlook and softness in the US gaming market. In its latest sector note, Seaport stated that although 2025 began slowly, signs of a summer rebound are “bearing fruit,” with momentum expected to continue through the rest of the year.
Bloomberg reports that analysts attribute the sector’s recovery to a combination of non-gaming attractions and infrastructure improvements. High-profile concerts by Cantopop star Jacky Cheung and South Korean rapper G-Dragon have drawn large crowds, while enhancements to railway connectivity and a supportive visa regime have made travel to Macau more convenient.
Analysts believe that the supportive visa regime, improved travel infrastructure, and continued expansion of non-gaming offerings will drive strong gaming revenue growth in 2025. They also view Macau gaming shares as attractive at current levels, given the sector’s favorable long-term outlook.
Among the top-performing stocks, US-listed shares of Melco Resorts & Entertainment have climbed 95 percent since April, while Hong Kong-listed MGM China Holdings has gained 70 percent.
Despite these gains, sector valuations remain below historical averages. The Bloomberg Intelligence index is currently trading at 8.7 times enterprise value to estimated forward EBITDA, well below its five-year average of approximately 14 times. This relative undervaluation may continue to attract investor interest.
