Analysts at CreditSights are expecting the strong results from the VIP segment in Macau to continue into early 2026, with easy yearly comparisons to ‘support healthy growth to start the year’.
However, looking to 2H26, the analysts note ‘a more difficult path for GGR per visitor to grow’, particularly given that arrivals ‘from the more affluent regions of China have already mostly recovered back or surpassed pre-COVID levels’. This causes the analysts to opine that ‘further visitation recovery is likely to come largely from the less affluent regions with less spending power’. This could then offset upsides from higher-spending VIPs.
Even so, the CreditSights analysts – under FitchSolutions – note that the Macau government’s current FY26 GGR estimate of MOP236 billion ($29.45 billion) is ‘overly conservative’, in particular given that it would be a 4.6 percent decline from the MOP247.4 billion ($30.88 billion) – a 9.1 percent yearly increase.
Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey predict ‘the potential for moderate (low-to-single digit) GGR growth in FY26’.
Overall, for 2025 GGR per visitor was down by 5 percent, to MOP6,174 ($770.5), despite Macau recording its highest-ever tourism influx – nearly 40.07 million tourists, a yearly increase of 13.7 percent. VIP GGR growth was 24 percent yearly, with the segment making up 27 percent of total FY25 GGR, note the analysts. Mass GGR also increased during the year, but only by 4 percent yearly.
The VIP growth was particularly accelerated in the final quarter of the year, rising by 45 percent to MOP20.3 billion ($2.53 billion). The analysts note that ‘the strong growth in (the) VIP segment was likely supported by a positive wealth effect from the equity market rallies seen in China and Hong Kong’, noting a 30 percent increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 27 percent rise in the China Securities Index.
